The Spanish Interior Minister, Mr Jaime Mayor Oreja, resigned yesterday in order to lead the Partido Popular campaign to outpoll the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) in elections to the Basque autonomous parliament. The voters do not go to the polls until May 13th, but the contest is already shaping up to be the most fiercely polarised since the parliament was established in 1980.
The president of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Mr Xabier Arzalluz, accused the Partido Popular last weekend of "bringing war" to the Basque country and refusing to seek a political solution in the region.
However, the PP leader and Spanish Prime Minister, Mr Jose Maria Aznar, argued that "only ETA has reason to fear a change of government" in the Basque country.
Mr Mayor is himself a Basque, but shares his party's deep antipathy to Basque nationalism. He is certainly the strongest candidate the PP could field in the election, and polls show the party is within striking distance of its goal.
Outside Basque nationalist circles he was a very popular interior minister, combining rather gruff personal charm with a tough stance against terrorism.
Mr Oreja insisted that the ceasefire called by ETA in 1998 was a trap. He rejected all comparisons with peace processes elsewhere, and ruled out any political concessions to the Basque independence movement.
He and his party blamed the PNV for entering into a pact for "Basque sovereignty" with ETA. This pact led to the ceasefire, but ETA returned to terrorism in late 1999.
In every administration since 1980, the PNV has governed either alone or in coalition with the Socialist Party (PSOE). The prospect of Mr Mayor as first minister outrages the PNV, who tend to think that only Basque nationalists should govern Basques, but his candidature is a perfectly democratic option. The PP's analysis is that the shock of losing power will force the PNV to stop flirting with ETA.
The opposite could also be true, however. The displacement of the PNV from government could drive it closer to the pro-independence stance of ETA's supporters, opening up the nightmare scenario of a full-scale conflict. That is what makes Mr Mayor's strategy such a high-risk gamble.