The findings of the private MRBI opinion poll, commissioned by supporters of Mr Jim Mitchell, will add to the confusion in Fine Gael in the run-up to a four-way leadership contest next Friday. Mr Jim Mitchell is the first choice of voters to succeed Mr John Bruton, 8 percentage points ahead of his joint challenger, Mr Michael Noonan. Mr Noonan is the favourite among Fine Gael supporters - 31 per cent to 27 per cent for Mr Mitchell - a factor which will influence the electorate of 72 members of the parliamentary party.
The results of this MRBI poll, coupled with the trends in yesterday's IMS poll in the Sunday Independent, may lead to a change of strategy in all competing camps.
More surprising than the findings themselves, however, is the fact that the opinion poll was commissioned at all. The poll was ordered from MRBI on a confidential basis at least a week before the Irish Times/MRBI poll which precipitated the heave against Mr John Bruton.
This indicates the motion of no confidence was in gestation for some time. The results would also suggest Mr Mitchell is most unlikely to withdraw from the race and throw in his lot with Mr Noonan.
Whoever becomes the new leader of Fine Gael, the poll shows a remarkable increase in support for the party with the prospect of Mr Bruton's removal. Fine Gael's core vote rose by seven percentage points to 22 per cent, its net vote by 10 points to 28 per cent against the backdrop of the heave last Monday and Tuesday.
Furthermore, Fine Gael's net vote increased by a further two points to 30 per cent in the event of Mr Bruton no longer leading the party. That is the highest vote for Fine Gael for a long time.
Meanwhile, the questions in the private poll are intriguing given the context in which it was commissioned. The poll was carried out for Mr Mitchell's benefit. Mr Ivan Yates was perceived to be the strongest and most likely candidate for the leadership in the event of Mr Bruton being beaten.
In the event of a change in leadership, Mr Mitchell is first choice of 30 per cent of voters. Mr Noonan scores 22 per cent and Mr Yates 20 per cent. Some 28 per cent express no opinion.
On a breakdown of the vote, Mr Mitchell secures a higher rating than Mr Noonan in Dublin (41 per cent to 17 per cent) and all provinces with the exception of Munster where Mr Noonan is one point ahead. Mr Mitchell has greater support in urban areas (35 per cent to 20 per cent) and draws even with Mr Noonan (24 per cent each) in rural areas. Mr Mitchell also wins on the male/female breakdown - 28 per cent to 22 per cent for males and 32 per cent to 21 per cent for females. Mr Noonan gets more support among Fine Gael supporters (31 per cent to 27 per cent) and Mr Mitchell is ahead among Labour supporters (33 per cent to 29 per cent).
Voters were then asked to give their first choice as a Fine Gael Taoiseach in the event of Fine Gael emerging as the main government party after the next general election. Some 43 per cent supported Mr Mitchell to 29 per cent for Mr Noonan. The poll shows Mr Mitchell ahead of Mr Noonan in the breakdown in all categories except farmers.
Mr Mitchell gets 50 per cent compared to Mr Noonan's 20 per cent in Dublin; 37 per cent to 28 per cent in the rest of Leinster; 41 per cent to 35 per cent in Munster; and 41 per cent to 32 per cent in Connacht/Ulster. Mr Mitchell gets 45 per cent to Mr Noonan's 24 per cent in urban areas; and 39 per cent to 34 per cent in rural areas. The poll also gives Mr Mitchell more support than Mr Noonan in the different age-groups: 29 per cent to 21 per cent in the 18-24 age-group; 42 per cent to 28 per cent in the 25-34 age-group; 45 per cent to 30 per cent in the 35-49 age-group; and 49 per cent to 33 per cent in the 50-64 age-group.
Mr Mitchell's support is 40 per cent to Mr Noonan's 32 per cent among male voters; and 44 per cent to 25 per cent among female voters. Mr Mitchell gets 48 per cent to Mr Noonan's 28 per cent in the politically volatile ABC1 category; 39 per cent to 26 per cent in the blue-collar C2DE category. Mr Noonan comes out ahead among farmers: 45 per cent to Mr Mitchell's 44 per cent among big farmers and both have the support of 32 per cent of smaller farmers.
The big caveat in this context, however, is that a Fine Gael leadership contest was not a reality on Monday and Tuesday of last week when the research was conducted. Furthermore, Mr Enda Kenny was not listed as a candidate in the poll.
