Montenegro's ruling pro-independence coalition narrowly won yesterday's parliamentary election in Montenegro, according to projections by local monitoring agencies.
But the projected victory for the bloc led by Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic was smaller than previously forecast by opinion polls and his own party, the Democratic Party of Socialists.
The election had been dominated by the issue of whether the small coastal republic should seek independence from Belgrade.
Before the vote, analysts said Mr Djukanovic's margin of victory would help determine whether he presses ahead with a promised referendum on independence.
In its final projection, the Centre for Monitoring said the coalition named "Victory is Montenegro's" won 42 per cent of the vote, against 40.9 per cent for a leftist bloc which favours preserving links with Yugoslavia's bigger republic of Serbia.
This result would give the pro-independence bloc 35 seats in the 77-seat parliament against 33 seats for the anti-independence grouping, the agency said.
The pro-independence Liberal Alliance Party won six seats, according to the projection. This would give parties favouring independence a majority in the assembly.
Another monitoring agency, the Centre for Democratic Transition, gave almost identical seat distribution figures.
Opinion polls before the election showed that parties favouring independence were ahead of the pro-Yugoslavia camp almost by a two-to-one margin.
Mr Djukanovic told reporters after voting in the capital of Podgorica that he expected a fair election and eventually "development of democracy and economic reforms leading us to integration (with the European Union)." Asked when he would call a referendum on independence if he won, he replied: "Soon, of course."
Party officials have said they are aiming for a referendum date in early July.
Mr Djukanovic's opponents, led by the "Together for Yugoslavia" bloc, claimed yesterday that the results would be illegitimate.
"These elections are far from democratic," Mr Predrag Bulatovic, head of the pro-Yugoslavia forces, said. "[Djukanovic] is abusing the privileges of office to dominate the media during the campaign. He is using state money for his own promotions."
Voting ended at 9 p.m. Yugoslav time. As of 5 p.m., more than 71 per cent of those eligible had cast their vote and monitors predicted that the election would see a record turnout.
If it does break away from the federation, Montenegro will be the last of the former Yugoslavia's five republics outside Serbia to do so. Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia have all struck out on their own.
The issue, however, has lost some of the urgency it had when Serbia and Montenegro were ruled by former Yugoslav president, Mr Slobodan Milosevic. The West encouraged Montenegrin moves towards independence as a means of weakening the dictator.
Montenegro's population of 600,000 now uses the German mark rather than the Yugoslav dinar. It conducts its own foreign policy and collects its own customs duties. Only the army and air-traffic control systems remain under federal Yugoslav control.
But after Mr Milosevic was ousted by Serb protests in October, Serbia became the West's new friend and Montenegro was left unresolved.
Now the international community is encouraging Yugoslavia to stay together for the sake of Balkan stability, worried that official separation will encourage further splintering in the Balkans.