Most EU leaders privately favour Sarkozy over socialist rival Royal

European Diary: Margot Wallström, the EU commissioner responsible for communications policy, upset centre-right politicians …

European Diary:Margot Wallström, the EU commissioner responsible for communications policy, upset centre-right politicians in Brussels last week with a shameless plug for French presidential candidate Ségolgène Royal.

On her internet blog the Swedish Social Democrat said she "cheered" the achievements of Royal in the first round of France's presidential election and wished her success in the second round on May 6th. "It's historic and I wanted, as a woman involved in politics, to pay homage to Ségolène Royal and wish her 'good luck' for what comes," she wrote.

Wallström's intervention in the French election to support her fellow socialist drew a predictably angry response from the centre-right group in the European Parliament. Joseph Daul, chairman of the EPP-ED, said Wallström's blog was "totally inadmissible" and cast a "serious doubt on the impartiality of the commission and the independence of its members".

Under an existing code of conduct, commissioners must ask the commission president if they want to campaign in national elections. There is also an unwritten rule that commissioners should refrain from interfering in national campaigns by endorsing one candidate or another.

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French commissioner Jacques Barrot, who is a member of Nicolas Sarkozy's political party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), has kept noticeably quiet during the presidential campaign. Commission president José Manuel Barroso has also largely refrained from explicitly endorsing Sarkozy, even though he is a conservative who belongs to the same EPP-ED political group in Europe as the French candidate.

Yet there are no doubts that most EU leaders privately favour Sarkozy.

"Brussels, Berlin and London prefer Sarkozy because they know more about his EU policy, he is easier on EU treaty reform, and his proposed economic policies could possibly kickstart an economic revival in France," says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.

Sarkozy's stance on the EU constitution fits neatly with Barroso's own conviction that another referendum is an unnecessary and dangerous risk. On a trip to Brussels last year Sarkozy advanced his idea for a mini-treaty that could be ratified by the French assembly. This would keep some parts of the constitution, such as an EU foreign minister, while going a step further in replacing the need for unanimity on areas such as taxation with a new super-qualified majority voting system.

The speech has helped shape the current debate on the future of the EU constitution, which French voters rejected in a referendum in May 2005. Barosso later welcomed Sarkozy to the Berlaymont, describing him as "a convinced and convincing European".

Royal got no such public endorsement when she paid a visit to the EU executive a few weeks later.

EU officials privately complain that her ideas on Europe have not been spelt out as clearly as Sarkozy's. They also fear her plan for a referendum on a "constitution-plus" treaty, which includes a reference to the need for a social Europe, could plunge the EU into a crisis if rejected by voters in France or if it encouraged other referendums in Europe.

Sarkozy's support for closer transatlantic relations with the US and economic reform in France has attracted interest from EU leaders such as German chancellor Angela Merkel and Britain's Tony Blair.

Rumours of an emerging strategic partnership between the three powerful EU leaders and Barroso circulated in Brussels last week. And there is little doubt that plans for a "mini-summit" of EU leaders in Portugal on May 12th - which have since been abandoned by Barroso - were conceived as an attempt to engage a future French president on the constitutional debate.

Yet Brussels insiders still hold nagging doubts about Sarkozy's EU credentials. His presidential campaign has demonstrated he is not above "bashing Brussels" in pursuit of votes. In a debate at the weekend he criticised Peter Mandelson's handling of trade policy noting: "He is a clever man, but the way he negotiates is the opposite of common sense." He has also repeatedly attacked the European Central Bank (ECB) for prioritising inflation rather than pursuing growth.

Sarkozy is also remembered for his defence of national champions when he was finance minister. His decision to bail out the French engineering firm Alstom in 2004 prompted derision in Brussels, which is the guardian of the EU internal market and seeks to ensure a level playing field for companies in all 27 EU states.

Royal has launched similar attacks on the ECB and also pledged to defend national champions to curry favour with the electorate. But most analysts believe she would not prove as aggressive as Sarkozy in defending national interests in Brussels. So while Sarkozy may hold the best answer to the constitutional debate, it remains to be seen if he really is a "convinced and convincing European".