Analysis: There is potential to change the Government. Just a third of voters would prefer to see the existing coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats returned to office for a third term, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Labour's conference decision of a fortnight ago has begun to focus attention on the fact that if the voters do want to expel the two Government parties from office, there is an alternative combination beginning to form.
The party support figures revealed by this Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll were published on Saturday and they provide encouraging reading for the Fine Gael and Labour leaderships.
They show the Fianna Fáil/PD bloc losing five percentage points in four months, and the Fine Gael/Labour combination gaining five. In other words, there was a 10-point change in the gap between the two. So having been seven points behind the current Government combination just last February, Fine Gael and Labour are three points ahead of them now. And that's before you think of adding the Greens' 4 per cent to the FG/Labour figure.
But when confronted with a choice between all possible Government options within the bounds of realism, the picture is different. Some 51 per cent of voters have chosen one of the options involving Fianna Fáil. Just 36 per cent have chosen one of the options involving Fine Gael. In other words those who want to see a Fianna Fáil-led Government after the next election would seem to far outnumber those who wish to see a Fine Gael led one.
This is partly - but only partly - down to the fact that many of those who intend to vote for smaller parties have said they would prefer a Government involving their party and Fianna Fáil. This may not be because they have any great regard for that party, but rather their calculating that the best chance of getting into Government is with the State's largest party. So some 42 per cent of Sinn Féin voters chose as their preferred option a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin Government; 45 per cent of PD supporters chose a Fianna Fáil/PD administration and 11 per cent of Greens would like a Fianna Fáil/Green Party coalition.
Of more concern to the two main parties seeking to put an alternative to the people at the next election is the proportion of their own voters who say they would prefer a Fianna Fáil led Government. Some 25 per cent of Fine Gael voters chose an option with Fianna Fáil participation - although just under a third of these were opting for a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael combination. Almost a third - 32 per cent - of Labour voters also went for a Fianna Fáil led option, with 23 per cent preferring a Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition.
Fianna Fáil voters, in contrast, are much less tolerant of seeing their largest opposition, Fine Gael, in the next Government. Just 6 per cent would do so and a third of these only if it were a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael combination.
So the theory advanced by many Fine Gael and Labour strategists - that there is a huge "anything-but-Fianna-Fáil" feeling out there - does not stand up on these figures. Significant numbers of voters for all parties are happy to see Fianna Fáil returned to Government, and appear unimpressed by the Opposition insistence that such a long run in power for one party would threaten democracy.
The "time for a change" slogan will therefore not be enough. The challenge facing Fine Gael and Labour, as they seek to cement their relationship before the next election, is to convince voters that they are offering an outlook and programme which is interesting enough but safe enough to vote for.
This is because currently 39 per cent of voters say they will vote for one of these two parties, but only 16 per cent see them as their preferred coalition combination. Even if you add in those who want Fine Gael and Labour to enter Government with the support of the Green Party, PDs or Sinn Féin you still get just 33 per cent choosing a Government with Fine Gael and Labour at its core - well short of the 39 per cent support the two parties have scored in this mid-term poll.
So despite the good party support figures for Fine Gael and Labour, when voters are confronted with the question as to who should form the next Government, there remains an underlying trend to see a Fianna Fáil-led administration as the best option.
And this is the concern for the Opposition parties. In a general election campaign the question many, probably most, voters believe they are answering is "who would you like to form the next Government", rather than "which party would you like to vote for". Fine Gael and Labour have in effect announced their pact in principle, and they have received an initial boost in voter approval. Now they have to convince the voters that they are capable of providing a coherent, safe but innovative alternative.
The figures provide Labour, and those in the Greens who favour coalition involving Fine Gael and Labour, with evidence to back up their view that their own voters do not want them to put Fianna Fáil back into office.
The Green Party, which agonised at its conference last month before ruling out a pre-election pact with Fine Gael, will note the very clear preference of its voters.
Some 60 per cent of Green Party voters chose a Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party alliance as their preferred choice for Government, with just 11 per cent saying they would like to see a Fianna Fáil/Green Party combination.
The Labour leadership will also be gratified to see a clear voter preference for their chosen alternative, but by a somewhat smaller margin. Some 60 per cent of party voters chose a Fine Gael/Labour combination, some including the support of either the Green Party or Sinn Féin. Just under a quarter of Labour voters - 23 per cent - opted for a Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition.
Fine Gael people tempted by the PD option might note that a Fianna Fáil/Labour/PD option received the support of zero per cent of Labour voters.
This reflects the fact that not one of the Labour Party supporters polled throughout the State last week chose this as their preferred option, although some 26 per cent of PD supporters did.