NATO membership seen as point of no return for Hungary

Russia's troubles seem to ever multiply, and the shadow of the great beast still falls on its former captives

Russia's troubles seem to ever multiply, and the shadow of the great beast still falls on its former captives. In Budapest the economic and political travails of recent months have caused a more intensive shiver than in more distant parts of the globe.

Sitting in his splendid office overlooking the Danube is one of the rising stars of the Fidesz party, the youthful right-wing movement led by the new prime minister, Mr Viktor Orban. Mr Zsolt Nemeth, at 35, is a contemporary of Orban and a co-founder, just 10 years ago, of Fidesz (Federation of Young Democrats). In the 1980s he studied political theory at Oxford, and later lectured on nationalism at the Istvan Szechenyi tertiary college. Political state secretary - equivalent of junior minister - in the Hungarian Department of Foreign Affairs, he has been looking nervously north during the long hot Hungarian summer of 1998.

"Unfortunately Russian instability is reflected in the market very vividly," says Mr Nemeth. Euphemistically, he says: "It is very interesting that we (Hungarians) are still so much under the influence of Russia. The recent events make the west turn inward, and as soon as the west gets inward-looking it is bad for us."

The west is Hungary's hope. Traditionally the most "westernised" and capitalist-inclined of the former Eastern bloc countries, it is almost frenziedly keen to become more and more integrated with the mainstream countries west of its borders. NATO and the EU are the twin obsessions of the political establishment. Without hesitation, when asked what is the primary focus of his department currently (Russia notwithstanding), Mr Nemeth says "NATO".

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Hungarians voted overwhelmingly in favour of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in a referendum at the end of 1997. The Yes vote was 85 per cent on a turnout of around 50 per cent. Ratification in the Hungarian parliament - delayed by July's election - is yet to take place, but Mr Nemeth expects it soon.

"The turmoil [caused by Russia] will not influence the willingness to join NATO. We are keeping our fingers crossed that this will go through soon. Then, NATO membership will be the point of no return for Hungary."

Mr Nemeth says NATO membership is seen very much as a precursor to joining the EU. In the shorter term, "NATO membership will give confidence to investors. We think of the security aspects it will bring not only in military terms."

But reaching the required degree of preparedness for NATO has incurred big costs - getting the soldiers and facilities to the criteria required, even language-training for officers, as Hungarian is a notoriously isolated tongue. This process has added to the other pain caused by pummelling the economy into shape for the EU, which has meant that material life has not improved much for the average Hungarian since the "new order" which followed the disintegration of the communist bloc at the beginning of the 1990s (sparked by a Hungarian decision to allow refugees from East Germany through its borders).

"The centre-right and the post-communist forces have always agreed on the main orientation points of Hungarian foreign policy," Nemeth says. "That's Europeanism and NATO.

"The advantages of NATO are seen as being incomparable," he says, whereas the whole government is working towards January 1st, 2002, as its formal accession date to the EU. "We think we can be ready by then," he says. Hungary is in the official "next-wave" of EU countries, along with its neighbours the Czech Republic and Poland. "We can shout into the soccer pitch but we cannot play yet," Mr Nemeth says.

The other main preoccupation in Budapest is also seen in many quarters as a domestic issue - the condition of the several million ethnic Hungarians living in neighbouring countries, particularly Romania and Slovakia. There is also a sizeable Hungarian population in Vojvodina, the area on the map still unfamiliar to many people, which is a province of Yugoslavia.

This question has been a running sore for decades, especially after Hungary was carved up following the first World War and lost Transylvania, which is now in Romania. The relationship between Budapest and Bucharest, which has improved of late, can often be fraught.

"The nation-state is the main problem," says Zsolt Nemeth, referring to Romanian policy. "It prohibits the use of language, it uses schools for assimilation purposes."

To remedy this situation he sees what is termed "integration", but comes across in explanation as more co-operation and connections. For example there is no main highway between Hungary and Romania, no fast modern terrestrial link between its capitals. Now, Mr Nemeth says, plans are on the drawing-board for such a road, but the route it should take, and whether it should go through areas of ethnic Hungarian concentration, is still much debated.

Another of landlocked Hungary's borders, to the south, is with Croatia, and then the ever-seething Balkans. More than 300,000 ethnic Hungarians fled Serbia because of the Bosnian war, and any fresh outbreak of violence raises the threat of more refugees spilling into Hungary. So with the Kosovo conflict in the headlines, the tranquil view over the Danube is of little comfort just now.