NATO mission to Macedonia is likely to extend beyond schedule

Nato's commitment of more than 3,500 troops to Macedonia is meant to last little more than a month, but even before the troops…

Nato's commitment of more than 3,500 troops to Macedonia is meant to last little more than a month, but even before the troops arrive there are predictions that they could be here for a lot longer.

A Macedonian policeman was shot dead by suspected ethnic Albanian rebels in Tetovo yesterday, puncturing the fragile ceasefire declared on Sunday. An NLA commander said a civilian was injured in the shooting and accused police of opening fire.

The week before the peace deal was signed saw some of the worst violence in the conflict, with 18 Macedonian soldiers ambushed or blown up by landmines, five NLA gunmen seemingly executed by police in a house in the capital and five Albanian civilians apparently shot in cold blood in a village.

"I'm sceptical that NATO's presence will last only 30 days," said Daniel Serwer, director of the Balkans Initiative at the US Institute for Peace in Washington. "I don't think they NATO planners think that either, only they can't face . . . telling the authorities at home that it is going to last more."

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A Western ambassador in Skopje said: "Albanian youths have had a taste of a successful insurgency. Part of the guerrilla group feels very sure of itself. It might not surrender its weapons."

Before the EU's foreign affairs envoy, Javier Solana, and NATO's secretary general, Lord Robertson, witnessed the signing of the so-called framework peace document, a splinter group of the NLA rejected the agreement.

NATO's ability to disarm the guerrillas is called into question by its experience in Kosovo, from which the Macedonian gunmen get a constant supply of men and weapons. In theory, the Kosovo Liberation Army was disarmed by K-For in 1999, but numerous arms finds and continued attacks on the Serb, gypsy and Slav-speaking minorities have proved otherwise.

The Macedonian government has no desire to give in to the Albanian demands only to see them take up arms again this autumn. Some believe NATO's "Operation Essential Harvest" should turn into a peacekeeping mission.

There are also fears that NATO's planned deployment in northern Macedonia could increase ethnic divisions. "You will have an unintended consequence of Albanians moving to NATO areas and Macedonians moving out," Mr Serwer warned.

Macedonian Slavs see NATO as the cause of their problems. Most regard the West as being pro-Albanian. When fighting started in February, Western governments supported their government, saying no state should give in to "terrorism". But, as time wore on, it became clear that the NLA could not easily be defeated and that discrimination against the Albanians was real and reforms were needed.

Under pressure from the EU and US, the government has had to give in to the rebel demands. But Macedonia needs Western support. It has a $227 million budget deficit, mainly as a result of the war. "There's no one else to turn to," Mr Serwer said. "They tried the Russians and the Ukrainians, but they can't give real assistance." Western governments also know that if they do not deploy troops now the conflict may spiral.