MIDDLE EAST: Ariel Sharon is set to wipe out the challenge of Benjamin Netanyahu, writes Peter Hirschberg, in Tel Aviv
Barring a blunder of almost cataclysmic proportions on the part of Israel's pollsters, the Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, will today see off the challenge of his one-time favoured opponent, Foreign Minister Mr Benajmin Netanyahu, in the race for leadership of the right-wing Likud party - a victory that is ultimately likely to hand Mr Sharon a second term in the prime minister's office.
Opinion polls, published only 24 hours before the voting was to begin this morning in the party primary, predicted that Mr Sharon would trounce Mr Netanyahu - once heralded by Likud members as a political "magician" - by 20 to 24 percentage points.
The swing in fortunes has been precipitous. Two years ago, only months after the Palestinian uprising erupted, Mr Netanyahu appeared certain to resnatch the premiership. But he refused to run, saying he was not ready to rule with a fractious parliament, and opened the way for Mr Sharon.
Until five weeks ago, Mr Netanyahu was ahead in the race, but the more exposure he has received, the more Mr Sharon's fortunes have risen. And the more Mr Netanyahu has slid in the polls, the more shrill his campaign proclamations have become.
Trying to outflank Mr Sharon from the right, the former premier announced at the outset of his campaign less than three weeks ago that the "first step" he would undertake on being elected prime minister would be to deport Palestinian Authority Chairman Mr Yasser Arafat.
Mr Sharon, who has parried the verbal blows from a younger, more telegenic opponent by sometimes stubbornly refusing to respond, other times answering with cutting innuendo, deflected this demand by telling members of his party that "Security is not built on slogans."
This does not mean Mr Sharon is opposed to expelling Mr Arafat. He simply believes the present time is inopportune, especially ahead of a possible American strike on Iraq, which could be undermined by such a drastic move. This seemingly pragmatic approach appears to have won Mr Sharon points in his party.
Mr Netanyahu, who says he strongly opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, also announced he would not serve in a government with Mr Sharon if the Prime Minister did not renounce his stated, albeit highly conditional, support for Palestinian statehood.
There was no difference, Mr Netanyahu insisted, rather implausibly, between Mr Sharon and the new dovish leader of the centre-left Labour Party, Mr Amram Mitzna, who has said he will dismantle settlements in the Gaza Strip and end Israel's presence there within a year of taking office.
The opinion surveys which flatter Mr Sharon also predict a windfall for his party in the general election on January 28th, when the Likud is expected to pulverise Labour, because of an Israeli public that has been hardened by two years of the Palestinian uprising.
Mr Sharon reiterated his support for the creation of a Palestinian state in interviews yesterday, but he also outlined his conditions, including his anti-terror mantra for the last two years, that he will not negotiate under fire.
A future state, Mr Sharon said, would be demilitarised, border crossings would remain under Israel's control, as would the airspace over an independent Palestine.
If Palestinian statehood was the result of "a comprehensive agreement that brings quiet, a total stop to terror and a true peace accord. . .then I don't believe there will be a single statesman who will oppose the creation of a Palestinian state," he told the daily Yediot Ahronot.
Predictably, Mr Sharon did not say whether he would be willing to dismantle settlements as part of a peace deal and he did not talk about the borders of a future Palestinian state.
After Mr Sharon was elected by a landslide in early 2000, some commentators suggested he might turn out to be a de Gaulle-type figure, ready to cast off his ideological baggage - he built many of the settlements in the West Bank in the early 1990s - and dismantle settlements as part of a deal with the Palestinians. That has not happened.
Now, some commentators are toying with the idea that Mr Sharon, now in his mid-70s, knows if he is re-elected it will be his last term, and wants to book his place in history as the Israeli leader who ended the conflict with the Palestinians.