TDs continue to debate this week the revision of constituencies but are unlikely to make any change to the commission's proposals, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
The revision of constituency boundaries, which is being discussed in the Dáil this week, leaves voters cold, but brings politicians out in a cold sweat.
Since the 1977 general election - when a blatantly partisan boundary revision orchestrated by Labour's then minister for local government James Tully went spectacularly wrong - this delicate task has been entrusted to an independent commission.
Politicians complain about the outcome from time to time, but they no longer attempt to interfere themselves.
The legislation going through the Dáil at the moment will simply bring into law the most recent changes recommended by the Boundary Review Commission in January 2004.
Several of those adversely affected complained at the outset of the Dáil debate last week and more will do so this week. But such is the sacrosanct nature of the independent commission's report, nobody expects even the slightest amendment.
Three Fianna Fáil TDs - Donie Cassidy, Bat O'Keeffe and John Ellis - are the most obvious losers as the new borders cut through their support bases. Others such as Sinn Féin's Joe Reilly in Meath will suffer significant setbacks to their attempts to be elected.
And while most voters have indeed been left cold, significant heat has been generated in Co Leitrim. The least populous county in the State has been split, with the two parts tagged on to other counties. This leaves the possibility that the county will elect no TD.
The Bill changes 23 constituencies, leaves 15 unchanged, creates five new ones but replaces four existing ones.
This brings the total to 43, electing an unchanged total of 166 deputies. There will be two less five-seaters, representing a disadvantage to smaller parties and Independents.
Some of the changes are minor but the changes to 12, expected to become law before the summer, may have a significant impact on the result.
Cork North Central
Goes down from five seats to four and one of the three Fianna Fáil TDs - Noel O'Flynn, Billy Kelleher and Dan Wallace - is almost certain to lose. O'Flynn topped the poll, leaving the other two, who polled close to each other, eyeing each other nervously. Labour's Kathleen Lynch and Fine Gael's Bernard Allen seem safe enough for the other two seats.
Cork South Central
Fianna Fáil's Batt O'Keeffe saw 15,119 voters from his Ballincollig base - which includes half of his personal vote - go to Cork North West, and he will follow it there. This leaves Micheál Martin and John Dennehy to defend their seats but if the 65-year-old Dennehy decided to quit, his son, a Cork city councillor, may run instead.
Simon Coveney, elected as a Fine Gael MEP last year, has yet to say whether he will opt for the Dáil or Europe at the next election. Party colleague Deirdre Clune is waiting in the wings, boosted by the imminent start of a 12-month period as Lord Mayor of Cork. The Green Party's Dan Boyle is largely unaffected by the change while Labour, which performed poorly in 2002, is disadvantaged further by the loss of Ballincollig.
Cork North West
Fine Gael has regularly taken two out of three here, and even came close to doing so in 2002 despite the party's dreadful result. The Fianna Fáil TDs elected last time - Michael and Donal Moynihan (they are not related) - were nervous enough before Batt O'Keeffe arrived with a bunch of Ballincollig votes from Cork South Central. At least one and possibly two of the Fianna Fáil TDs will lose out.
Fine Gael's Michael Creed lost by 47 votes to his colleague Gerard Murphy. He hasn't gone away, and has recently become mayor of Cork county.
Dublin North Central
Loses 11,000 voters to Dublin North East and North West, and loses a seat. Independent Finian McGrath took the seat of Labour's Derek McDowell here in 2002 when it was a four-seater. Now with the constituency down to three, McGrath said in last week's Dáil debate that the change may disadvantage "those outside the mainstream political parties" - in this case him.
It may indeed. Fianna Fáil won a remarkable 50 per cent vote in 2002, and, because they now pick up more transfers than in the past, can afford to drop some of that and still retain two seats. If they do Fine Gael's formidable electoral performer Richard Bruton seems hard to beat for the third seat. Fianna Fáil is likely to run just two candidates - outgoing deputies Ivor Callely and Seán Haughey - leaving their 2002 running mate Deirdre Heney to take her obvious vote-getting skills elsewhere.
Dublin West
Labour's Joan Burton was already vulnerable to any Fine Gael resurgence in this three-seat constituency. The loss to Dublin Mid West of 12,000 votes in Palmerstown, where she used to be a councillor, makes matters graver for her.
Fine Gael's Leo Varadkar was elected in last year's local elections in the Castleknock/Blanchardstown ward with the highest party vote in the State and will challenge the 2002 candidate Sheila Terry for the nomination. Fianna Fáil Cllr Brenda Clifford could join Minister of State Brian Lenihan on the ticket.
Dublin Mid West
Better news for Labour is that those 12,000 Palmerstown votes go to Dublin Mid West, where Senator Joanna Tuffy was in fourth place at the end of counting in 2002 in what was a three-seater. With the constituency now a four-seater and those extra votes from Palmerstown containing some Labour support, she has a good chance of being elected.
Fine Gael has other ideas. If they are to have the resurgence required to propel them into government they must win here. Austin Currie was defeated in 2002, and a successor has not yet been agreed upon.
Green Party TD Paul Gogarty would not be happy to see both Fine Gael and Labour win here, as it is would almost certainly be at his expense. The addition of a seat to the constituency may ensure that Tánaiste Mary Harney does not go through yet another campaign hearing warnings that her seat is in danger. Fianna Fáil TD John Curran has consolidated his position in the constituency.
Kildare North
Changes from a three-seater to a four-seater. Fianna Fáil should be looking for two here but is starting from zero. Charlie McCreevy jnr has yet to state his intentions. Áine Brady, who polled well in the by-election considering she was a last minute choice, seems certain to start.
Labour was beaten here by Independent Catherine Murphy in the recent by-election, but the addition of an extra Dáil seat means there is room for both her and sitting Labour deputy Emmet Stagg. Fine Gael's Bernard Durkan should also be safe.
Longford/Westmeath
A fresh skirmish took place in the local press just last week between Mary O'Rourke and Donie Cassidy, with the former suggesting the man who took her Dáil seat in 2002 wasn't exactly killing himself with constituency work. Cassidy's victory was in the present Westmeath constituency. The revision has linked Longford to Westmeath but most damaging for Cassidy, it took his home town of Castlepollard out and put it into the new Meath West. O'Rourke says she wants to run again and with two sitting Fianna Fáil TDs (Cassidy and Longford-based Peter Kelly) already in place, the party must decide whether it needs an Athlone-based candidate on the ticket too.
Five TDs plus O'Rourke will be among those seeking four seats here, so it is not only within Fianna Fáil that this new constituency will be fiercely fought. Fine Gael TD Paul McGrath - elected for Westmeath in 2002 - may be joined by Co Longford-based Senator James Bannon. Westmeath Labour TD Willie Penrose has already been making forays into Longford. The PDs' Mae Sexton was a surprise winner with just 55 votes to spare last time and is very vulnerable.
Meath West
The five-seat Meath constituency is being split into two three-seat entities, with Sinn Féin's Joe Reilly suffering the most obvious damage. His vote will be seriously split between the two new constituencies. He will run in Meath West where most of his vote came from in the by-election and hopes nevertheless to challenge for a seat. Minister Noel Dempsey and Johnny Brady TD will contest for Fianna Fáil, while Fine Gael TD Damian English has also opted for this side.
Meath East
Mary Wallace may be joined by the by-election candidate Shane Cassells on the Fianna Fáil ticket. Fine Gael's by-election winner Shane McEntee will also run here. However, should Matthew Bruton, the son of the former taoiseach, seek a nomination, McEntee will face a major challenge to repeat his by-election success.
By-election candidates Dominic Hannigan of Labour and Sirena Campbell of the PDs are also likely to run here.
Roscommon/South Leitrim
John Ellis's home county of Leitrim is being split in two. He is opting for the new constituency containing the largest part of his home county - Roscommon/South Leitrim rather than Sligo/North Leitrim.
He has lost a third of the personal vote that won him the last seat of four in the old Sligo-Leitrim. Roscommon TD Michael Finneran will join him on the ticket in what is now a three-seater.
Fine Gael will run Denis Naughten from South Roscommon, Senator Frank Feighan from Boyle and former TD Gerry Reynolds, who fortuitously moved from Ballinamore, Co Sligo, to Carrick-on-Shannon in Leitrim since the last election, but before the boundary changes were announced.
Sligo/North Leitrim
Independent Marian Harkin will not run again, having opted to concentrate on the European Parliament to which she was elected last year. For Fianna Fáil the sitting Sligo/Leitrim TD Jimmy Devins will run here, and may be joined by Cllr Éamon Scanlon who did well but failed to be elected last time.
Fine Gael will run sitting TD John Perry from south Sligo. Others seeking a place on the ticket are Cllr Tony McLoughlin of Sligo town and Michael Comiskey, north Leitrim. Sinn Féin's Seán MacManus appears to be the best positioned to try to upset the two largest parties.