It could take more than 50 years for the 10 countries joining the European Union to match the wealth of the current members, according to a report published today.
Ten nations - Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia - will become part of the EU on May 1st next year.
Even if the policy benefits flow as expected, catching up with their wealthy neighbours economically will take many decades, says a study by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
If post-accession policies falter, holding back the newcomers, it could take them a century to reach the average income level of the current 15 member states.
In the worst-case scenario, says the report: "It is conceivable that EU membership could leave the accession countries worse off than they would otherwise be, throwing the very survival of an expanded EU into question".
The report, in co-operation Accenture, Oracle and N M Rothschild and Sons, includes a survey of more than 300 business executives that showed 91 per cent in favour of enlargement.
A majority - 59 per cent - see enlargement as a business opportunity. But 61 per cent say bribery and corruption is the least attractive feature of the new countries for business investment - far worse than political instability or red tape.
Most - 58 per cent - believe the new member states will adopt the euro as their currency within three to five years, with just 1 per cent believing it will take more than 10 years.
Of all the accession countries, Hungary and the Czech Republic are expected to have the best business environments in five years, with Prague seen as the future business capital of central Europe.
PA