A new IRA ceasefire appeared assured last night following a dramatic statement from Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness urging the republican organisation to restore its cessation of violence. The likely imminence of a restoration of the ceasefire, which collapsed 17 months ago, was underlined by a statement from the Sinn Fein president, Mr Adams, who repeated that he would only make such an approach to the IRA if he were confident the response would be "positive".
The Adams-McGuinness call was preceded by a statement from the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, and Mr Adams stating they were "optimistic" that the outstanding obstacles to a new cessation could be removed.
It was also viewed as significant that key republican Mr Pat Doherty last night endorsed the call for a restoration of the ceasefire. Sinn Fein was providing a "real guarantee of a commitment that we will stick to a peace strategy", he said. At the time of writing there was no statement from the IRA.
It was obvious from the Adam McGuinness call that they believed the British government had conceded their final demand that decommissioning would not be a block to Sinn Fein entering and remaining in substantive talks.
Unionist and loyalist reaction ranged from the dismissive to the guardedly welcoming. While the Democratic Unionist Party was predictably hostile to the Sinn Fein statement, it was notable that the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, was quite measured in his response.
Mr Trimble did not ostensibly move from his position that following a ceasefire the IRA must begin handing over arms as soon as Sinn Fein entered substantive talks. But he nonetheless appeared to be taking comfort from the fact that any talks settlement can only ratified by a Northern Ireland referendum, lending some hope that he may yet engage with Sinn Fein.
Mr Trimble said in the event of talks they would have to be based on the fundamental principles of the Downing Street Declaration, "namely a commitment to exclusively peaceful means and a willingness to abide by democratic processes. This requires that the consent of the people of Northern Ireland must be paramount in determining its destiny."
Mr Trimble is due to meet the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, on Monday where he will seek further assurances on the decommissioning issue.
Garda sources have remained confident that the IRA was again moving towards a ceasefire. The hardline element which had ended the previous ceasefire is understood to have been effectively side-lined, possibly as long ago as late last year.
The delay in reaching the point of calling another ceasefire is said to have stemmed from problems in meeting conditions for Sinn Fein's entry into talks on the future of the North. This was clinched with the effective decision to push decommissioning down the agenda. There is strong opposition within the IRA to decommissioning and some senior security sources feel that no weapons will be handed over to the authorities at any stage. One senior figure pointed out that there is no historical precedent in republicanism for handing in weapons.
There was little reaction in nationalist areas of Belfast last night to the news of the impending ceasefire. One republican figure said it was known for some days that a major announcement was due and it was expected that a ceasefire would be likely, if not immediately, in the very near future. IRA activity has been winding down since the killing of two RUC constables in Lurgan last month. There was also no sign of any serious split in the IRA. There is some concern about the IRA in the Ardoyne area of Belfast which last week launched a gun and bomb attack which injured three soldiers and two police officers in the hours before the Orange Order's Twelfth demonstrations. A major police and British army search for arms was under way in the area yesterday.
The prospect of a renewed IRA ceasefire was greeted with varying degrees of scepticism from some unionists last night. The UUP MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson said the British government had "given the IRA virtually everything it had asked for". He said an IRA ceasefire would only be tactical.
The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, predicted the IRA would resort to violence "when they wish to again". He also said the British government had conceded all the republican demands. "Why on earth would the IRA not call a ceasefire in all of those circumstances," he said.
The political parties associated with the loyalist paramilitaries seemed somewhat more encouraged, however. Mr Billy Hutchinson, of the Progressive Unionist Party said it would be "good for the country" if the IRA stopped killing British citizens. He pointed out that in the approach to the last ceasefire the IRA killed a number of loyalists and warned people to be careful. Mr Gary McMichael, of the Ulster Democratic Party, said any welcome he gave would be weighted with "scepticism and suspicion" but he hoped any cease-fire would mean an absolute end to all military operations.
The SDLP's Mr Denis Haughey said the statement from Mr McGuinness and Mr Adams was very significant.