LABOUR MPs contemplating moves to try to force prime minister Gordon Brown from office have received fresh polling evidence that an alternative leader is unlikely to save them from a general election defeat.
The Populus poll for yesterday's London Timesfound that barely half the electorate (52 per cent) believed getting rid of Mr Brown would revive Labour's fortunes - while there had actually been a three-point rise in the number of those (44 per cent) who thought replacing Mr Brown with "a younger, fresher, more charismatic alternative" would not make a Labour victory more likely.
The poll comes amid fresh speculation that justice secretary Jack Straw might be prepared to offer himself as a "caretaker" leader, and another report that health secretary Alan Johnson and foreign secretary David Miliband might form a "dream ticket" if Mr Brown could be persuaded to stand down.
Few who know Mr Brown well think he would go willingly, unless his family came to the conclusion that remaining in office was bad both for him and the party. The prime minister will also be hoping that the latest wave of speculation, fuelled by Labour's spectacular defeat in the Glasgow East byelection, will subside as MPs head off for the August holidays.
However, it appears certain that the run-up to Labour's September conference will be dominated by questions about the Brown leadership. Moreover, evidence that changing leader might not make Labour more likely to win the general election is unlikely to deter Mr Brown's most persistent opponents.
Among the calculations Labour MPs are being asked to make is whether an early election following the installation of a new leader would be likely to at least reduce the scale of Labour's currently predicted defeat should Mr Brown hang on until the summer of 2010. The dilemma for younger ministers hoping to one day succeed Mr Brown is also reflected in dire predictions by former Downing Street spin doctors and others that the now expected defeat in 2010 could be of such a scale as to force Labour into opposition for two terms or more.
The bad news for Mr Brown and all those who see themselves as potential successors is the Populus finding that collapsing confidence in the economy is leading a large section of the electorate to write off the Labour Party as a whole.
With the Conservatives on 43 per cent to Labour's 27 per cent, two-fifths of those questioned thought a major cabinet reshuffle might help Labour, but this was offset by a full 55 per cent who thought it would make no difference. Rising economic pessimism, meanwhile, was found to have taken hold - with just 32 per cent remaining optimistic against 66 per cent who fear they and their families will be worse off in the coming year. Pessimism was also found to be highest among those who voted Labour in 2005 but who have now switched to the Conservatives.