No campaign in the North battles for vital votes

Saatchi and Saatchi might have designed posters for the Yes campaign but the Nos aren't doing too badly either

Saatchi and Saatchi might have designed posters for the Yes campaign but the Nos aren't doing too badly either. It would be difficult to improve their emblem. It's a Union Jack badge in the shape of a heart. "Have a Heart for Ulster" is the motto.

A donation, somewhere between £3 and £5, is expected for it. But there are reductions for pensioners and the DUP's director of elections, St Clair McAllister, generously offers The Irish Times one for free.

While the vast majority of nationalists appear to be behind the Belfast Agreement, the picture among unionists is far less clear. Yes campaigners have more support than those against the deal, but up to half of unionists seem not to have made up their minds.

A survey last week found 42 per cent of Ulster unionist supporters in favour of the agreement, 13 per cent against, and - most importantly - 45 per cent undecided. Everything is still to play for.

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The United Unionist Campaign against the agreement is led by the DUP, Robert McCartney's UK Unionists, and the dissident UUP MPs. The tactics are very different to the anti-Anglo Irish Agreement campaign of the mid-1980s that brought tens of thousands out to protest. There are no Tricolours or effigies of Tony Blair being burned on the streets, no paramilitary roadblocks or general strikes.

"Times have changed," admits one anti-agreement unionist. "Many people are against this deal but the fire in the belly just isn't there. Even those voting No in the referendum aren't prepared to come onto the streets and demonstrate. There is a feeling of hopelessness. Ulster said a massive No in 1985, yet it didn't change things one bit." This time, most significantly, the loyalist paramilitaries - except the Loyalist Volunteer Force - are on the Yes side.

The "edge" they provided is missing. Anti-agreement activists also admit that the tactic of the fringe loyalists showing up at DUP rallies and press conferences and issuing challenges from the floor was effective, at least initially, given the militant credentials of the hecklers.

Rather than attempting to organise monster street protests, the United Unionists are holding a series of indoor rallies across the North. Dozens have already taken place and 20 more will be held before referendum day.

Again, the situation fluctuates greatly. Several hundred people were expected at a rally in Garvagh, Co Derry, last week but only 70 turned up. Yet a small meeting planned for Lisbellaw, Co Fermanagh, attracted a 400-strong crowd.

Regardless of the turnout at rallies, both sides agree the United Unionist Campaign has been much more professional so far than the campaign in support of the agreement being mounted by the UUP leadership at Glengall Street.

"We're miles ahead of them," says one No campaigner. "They have no soldiers on the streets. Why haven't they taken their case to the Orange Halls, schools and church halls around the country? I don't see them organising many meetings."

A UUP councillor who supports the peace deal agrees. "The No campaigners are making lots of noise and the Yes campaign has been dreadful. There has been no real organisation or enthusiasm from Glengall Street. The height of our campaign seems to be issuing press releases. It is as though we are relying on Tony Blair, John Major, and others being airlifted in to sell the deal."

But this councillor still believes most unionists will vote for the agreement. The weakness of the No campaign, he says, is their lack of an alternative to the agreement. "Okay, they have come up with devolution plans based on those for Scotland and Wales but nationalists will not accept that. Most ordinary unionists, whether they like it or not, realise nationalist agreement is necessary and that they have to give more than they probably want to."

People are sick of the No campaign's "negativity", he says. "It's the same old rigmarole. Paisley getting hysterical and warning this is Ulster's gravest crisis and McCartney running around like he is the new Carson."

Mr McCartney acknowledges that it's hard to get the No message across, but he thinks the problem lies with the media. He points to a recent survey showing Yes campaigners are receiving 70 per cent of all media coverage of the referendum.

"It's the `Di syndrome'," he says. "It's unacceptable to be critical of Di and its unacceptable to be against the Agreement. The attitude is - `The Agreement is good. Opposition to the Agreement is bad. No rational criticism allowed'."

His critics dismiss this as "whingeing" but Mr McCartney is certainly the man Glengall Street fears most. While the DUP can alienate the more respectable, urban middle-class voter, McCartney has the professional and intellectual kudos they admire.

The dissident UUP MPs, particularly Mr Willie Ross, further expand the campaign's appeal, bringing along the conservative, rural non-DUP voting populace. The Rev Ian Paisley brings his own qualities.

A No campaigner says: "Paisley is 72 and beginning to show his years. His style is out of date for television, it's too aggressive and loud for many people. But there is recognition of that and plenty of other voices, apart from Paisley's, on television and radio."

The source insists the DUP leader is a vital part of the campaign. "He is still the most popular politician among Ulster Protestants. David Trimble inspires nowhere near the warmth Paisley does. He is a magnificent canvasser." Unionist voters seem most concerned about prisoner releases, the future of the RUC and the possibility of Sinn Fein in government without decommissioning. The prospect of Gerry Adams running the schools, or Martin McGuinness the hospitals, appals them. Most do not seem unduly alarmed by the prospect of cross-Border bodies but No campaigners claim that is changing.

A UUP Yes campaigner says the stronger republican opposition is to the agreement, the better. "We need Ruairi O Bradaigh and Bernadette Sands McKevitt on television as much as possible saying it's a sell-out. That makes our voters realise republicans are the losers and the Union is safe."

It is very difficult to read what is happening in the unionist community. It seems divided as never before. The huge mass of undecided voters in the middle will be vital.

Yes campaigners currently have a clear lead and the general mood in the North for peace would indicate that things will stay that way. The No campaigners need around 35 per cent of the vote in the referendum in order to say that a clear majority of unionists are opposed to the Belfast Agreement. The next fortnight will be vital for both sides. This one will go all the way to the wire.