THERE HAS been no swing back to Fianna Fáil in the course of the European and local election campaign, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll which shows the party slipping to a record low.
Fine Gael has also seen a dip in support since the last poll two weeks ago but the Labour Party has had a significant increase in the same period. The poll suggests that the momentum remains with Fine Gael and Labour in the run-up to the June 5th elections and Fianna Fáil is set for its worst-ever performance.
The crumb of comfort for Fianna Fáil is an increase in the satisfaction rating of the Government and the Taoiseach.
When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Timespoll on May 14th, were: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 36 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 23 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down 1 point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 10 per cent (up 1 point).
The poll was taken between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, as the full implications of the Ryan commission report made their impact on the public.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Timespoll was: Fianna Fáil, 19 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 28 per cent (down 1 point); Labour, 17 per cent (up 2 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (no change); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); Independents/ others, 7 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 19 per cent (down 1 point).
The Fianna Fáil core vote in Dublin is down to 12 per cent while Labour has moved into first place in the capital with 26 per cent, closely followed by Fine Gael on 24 per cent.
Fine Gael now has a commanding lead over Fianna Fáil across every region, age group and social category while Labour has pulled ahead of the main Government party in terms of the adjusted national vote.
The Green Party has remained stuck on 3 per cent of the national vote but the party will take some comfort from the fact that its vote in Dublin is a little higher than that. The Sinn Féin vote has dipped slightly since the last poll but it is still in a strong position to hold its ground in both the local and European elections.
When voters were asked who they would support in a local election Independents did significantly better than in the question about a general election.
The adjusted figures for party support in the local elections were: Fianna Fáil 18 per cent (down 2 points); Fine Gael 32 per cent (down 1 point); Labour 20 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin 8 per cent (down 2 points); Green Party 3 per cent (no change) and Independent/Other 19 per cent (up 5 points).
If the result of the local elections in a week’s time is in line with this finding Fine Gael is set to become the biggest party in local government for the first time and Fianna Fáil will lose a significant number of seats.
There is some consolation for the Coalition in the fact that the satisfaction rating for the Government and the Taoiseach has risen a little over the past two weeks after plummeting to record lows in the last poll. The Government’s rating is up 2 points to 12 per cent while Mr Cowen’s is up 3 points to 21 per cent. Green Party leader John Gormley is also up 2 points to 27 per cent.
Still, a massive 84 per cent of the voters are dissatisfied with the performance of the Government with almost every category of voters equally unhappy.
Fianna Fáil supporters have rallied since the last poll but a majority are still dissatisfied and over 90 per cent of Green voters are unhappy with the Coalition’s performance.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny sees his rating drop by 2 points to 31 per cent and he continues to trail his party. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular political figure, although he has dropped 2 points to 49 per cent while Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams is down 1 point to 33 per cent.
