Next weekend Fianna Fail gathers at the RDS for the first ardfheis of Bertie Ahern's reign as Taoiseach. And reign it has been to date. He will address the faithful on Friday night, when he is expected to outline how the party has been cleaned up since he took over, how his code of practice for deputies, launched nearly two years ago, has been implemented, how he is higher in the polls than any serving Taoiseach has ever been and how FF governments are likely to be in power into the distant future.
On Saturday night he will address the people via RTE. Again there will be a run-down of party successes with the North and the economy featuring prominently. While he will emphasise the health of the Celtic Tiger and that the economic buoyancy will continue, provided the Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, introduces a prudent Budget, Ahern is far too cute for a "you never had it so good" type speech that started the decline of one British PM.
Meanwhile, he continues to dominate the Cabinet, and consequently he embodies the Government in the eyes of the public. Only the Tanaiste, Mary Harney and Charlie McCreevy have a profile remotely approaching his. And so it will continue. Plans for a reshuffle at both senior and junior level have been shelved, if they ever existed, and the Taoiseach continues to keep a tight grip on the troops to ensure there will be no slippage and that the Government can survive for at least another three years.
A reshuffle, which would suit some ministers, encourage the ambitious and remove the deadwood, might have been possible if the EU foreign ministers had not rejected an Austrian EU presidency proposal that deputy prime ministers would take over Europe duties. More responsibilities for Harney might have created an opening for some sort of reshuffle. At junior level, the Taoiseach promised a post to one of two backbenchers if they brought in a fourth deputy in Cork South Central last month. They didn't, so that's the end of that. Euro successes - both Michael Woods and Noel Treacy are mentioned as possible candidates - might open it up again.
But the Taoiseach's style is not to ruffle any feathers, (remember Garret FitzGerald's bungled reshuffle), and only to act when he has to. Ahern didn't reshuffle in Opposition. Everything is going smoothly and the Government is ploughing a steady, prosperous, successful course. Why fix something when isn't broken?