Economic and military support, especially from China, have allowed the junta to solidify power, writes Clifford Coonan
THE RELEASE of Burmese activist Aung San Suu Kyi after seven years under house arrest has been widely welcomed by supporters of democracy in Burma and across the world.
While it has sparked hopes of change in Burma, recent moves by the ruling military junta to wrong-foot the opposition using widely criticised elections means there are no signs that democratic reform is on the cards any time soon in the country.
Suu Kyi immediately struck a conciliatory tone on being released from the house on University Avenue in Rangoon, where she has been jailed since 2003, promising to use “whatever authority I have” to talk to the generals, who have run the country since 1962. Top general Than Shwe is said to loathe her, and has been unwilling to talk to her for many years now.
She is the greatest hope Burma has of western-style democracy, but her position has been weakened by her years under house arrest. Economic and military support from neighbours and regional allies, especially China, has allowed the junta to solidify its hold on the country and means it will be a lot more difficult for Suu Kyi to forge change in Burma. Other southeast Asian countries and India have also been working with the junta.
“The release of Aung San Suu Kyi is about public relations, not democratic reform,” said Zoya Phan, international co-ordinator at UK activist group Burma Campaign. “I am thrilled to see our democracy leader free at last, but the release is not part of any political process, instead it is designed to get positive publicity for the dictatorship after the blatant rigging of elections on November 7th. We must not forget the thousands of other political prisoners still suffering in Burma’s jails.”
The pressure on Burma to open up has been unrelenting as the country has been largely isolated since the junta refused to recognise the results of democratic elections 20 years
ago, which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won by a landslide.
Since that poll, European Union countries, including Ireland, have brought economic sanctions against Burma, as have the United States and Australia.
However, China, which needs Burma’s oil and gas reserves, and which operates a policy of what it calls non-interference in other sovereign states’ business, has become a significant ally.
The broader issue of sanctions may be up for review now that Suu Kyi has changed her view on them as a conciliatory gesture.
There is no way of knowing what the junta is thinking, so it is unclear why the generals decided to stage an election last week, their first since 1990, but they did and, as expected, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party swept the boards, taking more than four-fifths of the vote.
Even though the elections were condemned by western pro-democracy activists as a sham, they leave the army in control of the new parliament. The poll has also most likely split the opposition vote, with some favouring a less confrontational approach with the generals. Bringing the anti-junta voices back together may prove a difficult task.
There remain many impediments to normalisation in Burma. There are more than 2,200 political prisoners still held under vague laws. Amnesty International says they are being kept in grim conditions, with many in poor health and not receiving proper medical treatment.
“The release of Aung San Suu Kyi must not mean that we forget the other prisoners in [Burma]. Her release must be the first of many,” said Colm O’Gorman, executive director of Amnesty International Ireland.
“Her release marks the end of an unfair sentence that was illegally extended. The authorities should never have arrested her or the many other prisoners of conscience in [Burma] in the first place,” said O’Gorman.
Without a political party, Suu Kyi’s threat has been largely neutralised.
And if she does manage the difficult task of unifying the opposition and putting pressure on the generals, the junta always has the option of putting her back under house arrest. It has done so many times before.