VOTE OPTIONS:THE CHAIRMAN of the European Parliament's constitutional affairs committee, Jo Leinen, has suggested that Ireland could be asked to leave the EU if it votes against the Lisbon Treaty.
He also said that another option would be for Ireland to seek opt-outs from various European policies and put an amended treaty to another referendum.
"If one country, Ireland or anyone else, is having a No and 26 (states) are having a Yes, it is as well not very democratic or acceptable that the 26 are blocked. Then I think it is reasonable to find out exactly what the No means. Is it a No to the total EU? Then, in fact, the country should leave the EU," Mr Leinen told The Irish Times.
Mr Leinen, who is one of the most senior German MEPs, said all member states had an obligation of "loyalty or loyal co-operation" to the EU, which meant a state should not misuse its veto right and block other countries.
"In the event of a No vote the Union has to ask Ireland what exactly it objected to? If it has a principled problem with EU integration then it must negotiate a special relationship with the EU," he said. "Ireland would be part of the EC (European Community), but not part of the EU."
One example of this type of arrangement is Norway, which rejected joining the EU in referendums held in 1972 and 1994.
Mr Leinen's comments conflict with those of European Commission president José Manuel Barroso, who has consistently said there is no "plan B" if there is a No vote. But a majority of MEPs have already voted against an amendment that would have committed them to respect the Irish referendum result, suggesting the parliament would try to implement Lisbon, with or without Ireland.
Mr Leinen said he did not think Ireland would leave the EU because it generally accepted European unity. A more likely option was adding opt-outs or declarations to the treaty to enable a new referendum, as occurred with the Nice Treaty, he added.
But he said this would not be easy because there were very few new EU competences created by the Lisbon Treaty and Ireland had already negotiated opt-outs.
A country tends to be weakened when it opts out of various EU policies, added Mr Leinen, citing Denmark, which after saying no to the Maastricht treaty in 1992 negotiated opt-outs from justice, defence, citizenship and the euro. Denmark is to hold a referendum in the autumn to remove some of these exceptions.
"So you [Ireland] could lose time and lose comfort and be a bit marginalised," he added.
He said for this reason it was risky for the Government to hold a referendum on the treaty, which all other EU states are ratifying through their parliaments.
Mr Leinen said he was in favour of holding EU-wide referendums in the future, which would enable all EU citizens to vote on treaties or big ethical issues such as genetic engineering or genetically modified organisms. These would be based on the will of the majority of EU citizens. This would engage citizens on European issues rather than allow internal or local issues to dominate referendums in any one member state, he added.
A No vote would also provoke a crisis in the EU that would boost anti-EU forces ahead of next year's European elections and severely weaken the EU's position internationally, Mr Leinen said.
He said a referendum defeat would block the implementation of the treaty, and mean a host of necessary policies on energy, fighting terrorism and migration could not be passed. EU states would remain fragmented and could not create a common energy policy, leaving the Baltic states and Poland vulnerable to Russia, which he noted was "still playing games with them".
Europe could not expect to leave foreign policy issues such as Kosovo to the US. But each member state was too small to solve this issue on its own, he said.