Noonan's leadership sets off alarm bells on all sides

If the past week in the House had a motif, it would have been bells

If the past week in the House had a motif, it would have been bells. Division bells, alarm bells and, as Enda Kenny discovered, those peculiar bells whose peal you should not query, as they probably toll for you.

Drapier's Fianna Fail colleagues deny that Michael Noonan's election has set the alarm bells ringing in the party's new Lower Mount Street offices. None the less there are whispers that Bertie's HQ team may be revisiting their electoral strategies in some key seats.

Only a week in the job and Fine Gael insiders are already bullish about the party's electoral prospects. The key to their revival, they argue, is an increase in the party's representation along the western seaboard. The cockpit of this resurgence, they believe, will be along the Shannon estuary.

The prospect of having a Taoiseach who knows all the words of "There is an Isle", or, in the new nationalist Fine Gael, "Sean South of Garryowen", could see the party make gains in both Limerick and Clare.

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Notwithstanding Michael Finucane's omission from the front bench, Fine Gael are confident of holding their two seats in the Limerick West constituency, especially if Fianna Fail does not get its act together there quickly.

But it's extra seats that Fine Gael need and their prospects look particularly promising in Noonan's own Limerick East bailiwick, where he is certain to bring in a running mate at the PDs' expense. Indeed there are mutterings that the party may yet choose to run a third candidate and vote-manage their way to gain a staggering third seat.

The impending South Tipperary by-election, where Fine Gael are already assured of victory, will give Michael a safe opportunity to test his local popularity in the region. Fianna Fail can only improve on their disastrous showing here last time out, but not enough to avoid defeat.

While Noonan's people are confident that he will deliver the extra seats needed along the western seaboard, they are not so sure when it comes to Jim Mitchell's ability to deliver in Dublin.

Jim's brother Gay may have given a hostage to fortune in the run-up to the Bruton heave when he predicted that he would take a second seat in his own South Central constituency. Any gain here would be at Labour's expense and not Fianna Fail's.

This is the core of Fine Gael's problem in the capital. It can only make gains in Dublin by moving to the left but these gains, by definition, would be at the expense of Labour. Fine Gael is caught in a classic Catch 22. The very thing they need to do to make gains in Dublin will cause them to lose seats elsewhere.

Whatever about the alarm bells, Michael has certainly set the division bells ringing around the House. Within a few minutes of getting to his feet in the Dail as party leader, Michael was opposing the order of business and calling divisions left, right and centre. The division-calling contagion was still virulent on Thursday as two further divisions were called on the order of business.

Drapier has previously observed here that the daily Order of Business has descended into a bad-tempered and disorderly ritual that does none of us any good. The Order of Business has become a daily exercise in playing to the gallery and attention seeking.

Each day Ruairi Quinn's voice seems to grow louder and louder and higher and higher as he attempts to top his previous day's peak of outrage. It has now got to the point where his blood pressure is becoming a major topic of conversation around the bar.

But he is not alone. Last week the Ceann Comhairle attempted to restore some decorum by reining in the perimeters of what can be raised by the two party leaders and only allowing Northern Ireland issues. Thus returning to a pre-October 1999 situation.

This initiative was greeted with a frenzy of protest from both Fine Gael and Labour. Charlie Flanagan melodramatically charged that Seamus Pattison's decision offends the very core principle of accountability in a democratic State.

The Leaders' Questions issue comes up again for debate on Tuesday next. Drapier would caution all sides to tone down the rhetoric and show to those outside what most of us inside already know: you win hearts and minds by the content of your argument, not the volume.

Michael Noonan has very much started as he means to continue. During his leadership campaign his supporters were telling everyone that Michael would be spending less time in the Chamber and would get out pressing the flesh in Fine Gael's targeted marginals.

Drapier does not know if Michael was already out and about last Tuesday, but he left his deputy, Jim Mitchell, to handle the first Taoiseach's question time of the Noonan/Mitchell era.

Not only did Michael allow Jim to handle Taoiseach's questions, he took a back seat while putative finance spokespersons, putting special notice questions to Charlie McCreevy following the Commission reprimand, auditioned for Michael's old portfolio. If only they had known that Big Jim already had the job sewn up.

"Few were called, and even fewer were chosen" was the verdict of one of Drapier's colleagues on Noonan's front bench. Michael realises that he risks becoming one of the shortest-lived leaders if he does not lead the party back into Government, but he may come to regret the exclusion of both Enda Kenny and Bernard Allen from his new front bench.

They are two heavy hitters who should not be sent off to twiddle their thumbs while the party battles to stage a comeback. Similarly, the demotion of young Denis Naughten does not impress many. None the less Michael has his sights firmly fixed on the big prize and if there are casualties along the way, well, so be it.

If the details of Charlie McCreevy's new savings scheme and the ramifications of Fine Gael's front-bench changes were not enough to contend with, Drapier spent most of Thursday evening trying to interpret the motives behind a Dail question from Alan Dukes to the Minister for Agriculture on the subject of snail breeding, snail rearing and live snail exports.

Was Alan subtly heralding the new Fine Gael era and indulging himself in a bit of ritualistic Celtic Snail bashing, or was he merely urging us to embrace our European identity, face Brussels rather than Boston, and develop a penchant for les escargots?

Who knows? Drapier, for one, doesn't.