The only certainty in Northern Ireland politics is uncertainty; the one thing you can be sure of is doubt. Once again this week we open a door into the dark with the Assembly elections.
This is not the decorous alternation of parliamentary majorities that one sees in a normal democracy. It is not a case of the electorate changing the team at the top because it is bored watching the same faces all the time on television.
This election is about whether or not a new political system should be established in Northern Ireland. But even those who favour setting up the new system disagree about what it means: some say it will copperfasten the link with Britain, others that it is the "last hinge" on the door of the union.
Whatever happens, it will not be smooth, or tidy, or pretty to watch. Not just politicians but two entire communities are being asked to compromise on long-held and deeply cherished beliefs and values. Party leaders are risking not just their careers, but in some cases their very lives, as part of this process.
Yet despite all that has been at stake, the election has been low-key almost to the point of silence. The immediate reason, to be blunt, is the World Cup. Who wants to trade the excitements of "the beautiful game" for a predictable chat about politics on the front doorstep?
Second, politicians and party apparatchiks are quite simply exhausted after the Golgotha of the Stormont talks followed by an equally fraught and nervous referendum campaign.
At a deeper level, the fact is that the referendum campaign was in actuality the first round of the Assembly elections or, if you wish, the elections are the second round of the referendum campaign.
The election campaign only came to life, however fitfully, with the controversy over the Hansard version of the Prime Minister's remarks on decommissioning and prisoner releases.
The main event this week was Mr David Trimble's keynote address, but that may prove to have more impact after the election than before it.
Most forecasts give the Yes parties a handsome majority in the Assembly - on paper. Most observers are predicting a minimum of 30 seats for the Ulster Unionists, perhaps even three or four over that.
The vagaries of proportional representation in six-seater constituencies are making this a very difficult election to predict. But the SDLP is generally expected to emerge with about two dozen Assembly seats.
Sinn Fein's own forecast for its performance is quite modest, at 15 to 17 seats, although it may get as many as 20. ein vote is less subject to mood swings than that of most other parties.
The Alliance Party should in theory at least have a good election. Forecasts for their performance are ranging from seven to nine seats.
The Progressive Unionist Party is also set to emerge as a small but not insignificant presence. Most predictions give it a minimum of two seats, with some observers going as high as four.
Also on the Yes side, there is speculation about the chances of the Ulster Democratic Party and the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition perhaps getting a seat each, but nobody is betting the farm on that yet.
Among the anti-agreement forces, the big battalions are with the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists. Forecasts about their performance vary from as low as 17 to as high as 25 but generally settling down in the early 20s. Mr Robert McCartney's UK Unionists are also expected to be in the Assembly, albeit in small numbers.
There is increasing talk about the prospects for Ulster Unionists who are standing on an independent anti-agreement ticket. The chances of Mr Denis Watson in Upper Bann and Mr William Wright in North Antrim are well fancied in some quarters.
The only certainty in all of this is that there cannot be more than 108 members in the entire Assembly, but the best guess among the forecasting fraternity is that the anti-agreement forces will form a solid bloc of 25-27 members.
That's when the real fun will start. As every schoolchild who is following this election closely knows, the magic number for causing trouble in the new body is 30 members.
That allows you to present a "petition of concern" designating a particular motion as a "key decision" requiring cross-community support. In a sense, the anti-agreement forces would be better off having fewer than 30 Assembly seats because this would oblige them to lay siege to the mainstream Ulster Unionist Party, disturbing the consciences of its members and their fidelity or otherwise to the union in its traditional form.
A phrase we are likely to hear more of in the coming weeks is "The agreement is the agreement is the agreement". In a sense, all the events at Westminster surrounding the legislation on the release of prisoners were a charade because the British government could not abrogate the terms of the Good Friday pact.
Likewise, although we may well hear much rhetoric and see a great deal of fancy footwork over the coming weeks and months, there does not appear to be anything in the agreement to prevent Sinn Fein taking one or more seats in a Northern Ireland administration, provided it gets the numbers at the ballot box.
All the UUP can do is postpone what it clearly regards as the evil day. The more this can be put off, the more the pressure on the UUP leadership will decrease. At least that seems to be the theory.
The agreement provides for up to 10 portfolios in addition to the posts of first and deputy first minister (the titles given to the members who will share the job of prime minister of Northern Ireland). Since there are only six government departments to hand over to the Assembly, an argument can be made for delaying the appointment of ministers until the sweeties have been rearranged into 10 piles.
But since the ministries will be allocated according to party strengths, everyone will know the entitlements of the different parties from the time election results are counted.
As one political insider put it: "The executive establishes itself". There is, of course, the possibility that there may be fewer than 10 ministries, but this is widely considered unlikely unless the bigger parties opt for eight or nine, in order to exclude a common enemy or enemies.
There will be no stinting on gravy at this banquet. There are jobs for the boys and girls, and it will take a particularly principled - some would say pig-headed - individual to resist the temptations of office and its perks.
The salaries and expenses even for ordinary members are attractive, with the promise of greater things to come. During the "shadow" period before the formal transfer of powers, members will be paid £29,000 a year with an initial £15,000 allowance for office costs. The Assembly is expected to hold its first meeting next Tuesday and will probably sit over two days. In addition to the "housekeeping" items such as the election of the speaker and the first and deputy first ministers, it would not be surprising if the new body chose to debate the issue of parades, a few days ahead of the proposed Garvaghy Road march.
Assemblies may come and go in Northern Ireland, but Drumcree lasts for ever.