For years, Bill Clinton has been an umbrella over the Northern peace process. But now it's stopped raining. He may go down in flames, or else limp through to the end of his term, but either way the peace process is likely to survive.
It was not always thus. It is widely agreed that Clinton played a critical role at various times, especially in the run-up to the Belfast Agreement on Good Friday. Insiders say the talks were teetering on the brink that afternoon, but Clinton helped to persuade the unionists, in particular, that it was worth staying, that this was a deal worth making. "He was the man who got the ball across the line", said one insider.
Senior unionists said Clinton's departure from the White House would "not have a major effect" at this stage, although it would be preferable if he stayed. "There's so much momentum in the entire political process now that it's unstoppable."
With some exceptions, Northern politicians tend to be straitlaced in the conduct of their private lives. Their reaction to the Clinton revelations would, in most cases, be one of bemusement rather than outrage. However, nothing which has emerged so far is likely to prevent most politicians here from taking a telephone call from the most powerful man in the world.
The Clinton revelations will not cast any significant shadow over today's deliberations in the Assembly. There is too much work to do. The fact that the body is meeting in the old Stormont Parliament has not so far aroused any great objections from nationalists or republicans. One senior Sinn Fein member said it wasn't an issue on the doorstep in the June elections.
Insiders believe Lord Alderdice has a fair chance of remaining as Speaker for the present, without formal endorsement, and there is speculation that the former SDLP Lord Mayor of Belfast, Mr Alban Maginness, may at some stage be nominated for the post of Deputy Speaker, provided that he can be "sold" to the UUP members.
First Minister David Trimble and Deputy First Minister Seamus Mallon will make a joint report to the Assembly today on progress so far towards establishing the institutions envisaged under the agreement. Most of the afternoon will be taken up with a debate on the Omagh bombing. There may be a further sitting tomorrow morning, after which the body will probably be adjourned for a number of weeks.
The Assembly still exists only in "shadow" form. The formal transfer of powers will take place in "early spring", insiders say. They are reluctant to be tied down to February. Once formally established, it will probably meet two days a week.
Today's interim report from Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon will outline the various options for restructuring the system of administration in Northern Ireland. They will most likely dwell on the arguments from the point of view of the public good, rather than political horse-trading. But there is already considerable jockeying behind the scenes over the number of ministries to be established. The agreement provides for as many as 10, which would give the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein two each, but the UUP claims it wants only seven portfolios.
The establishment of junior ministerial posts as a consolation prize would make life easier for different party leaderships. There have been suggestions that the junior ministers should be appointed by the First and Deputy First Ministers, but the smaller parties may have their own views about that.
At its meeting with Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon last Thursday, the Sinn Fein delegation said it wanted 10 "meaningful" departments which could "deliver a creative and radical programme". Sources said the full Sinn Fein list was: Education; Cultural Affairs, Arts and the Irish Language; Equality, Community Relations and Information; Environment and Transport; Housing and Local Government; Economic Development; Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Finance and Personnel; Health and Social Services; Training and Employment.
Sinn Fein is, naturally, taking a particular interest in the North-South Ministerial Council. Mr Trimble announced on Thursday that this body and its sister institution, the British-Irish Council, would hold their inaugural meetings at the end of this month or early next month. The areas for cross-Border co-operation have to be identified and agreed by October 31st.
Nationalists inevitably have greater ambitions than unionists for the North-South Council, and this will be one of several issues to keep the North's politicians occupied in the coming weeks. They will mostly be far too busy to take more than a passing interest in the travails of Bill Clinton and Kenneth Starr.