Before the days of the Progressive Democrats, Limerick East was almost guaranteed to return two Fine Gael seats. Now, for the first time in 20 years, the party is in with a serious chance of reclaiming a second seat at the expense of the Progressive Democrats.
What makes this battle even more enticing is that it will involve two of Limerick's most prominent political families: the O'Malleys and the O'Donnells.
Tim O'Malley, Minister of State with responsibility for health, is hoping to continue the unbroken tradition of having a member of the O'Malley family represent Limerick East for more than 50 years.
Donogh O'Malley, who went on to become minister for education, started the ball rolling in 1954. He was succeeded by his nephew, the subsequent founder of the Progressive Democrats, Des O'Malley. Dessie's cousin, Tim, confounded the pundits last time out by narrowly winning the seat with the benefit of a resurgent PD vote behind him.
While O'Malley took the last seat on the 11th count in 2002, on this occasion he has the benefit of a higher profile, and he has been talking up achievements locally such as helping to secure radiotherapy facilities for the city.
Ultimately, however, his fate may be determined by the generosity of transfers from Fianna Fáil voters. Just what effect the PDs' flip-flopping on their support for the Government will have on this remains to be seen.
His main opponent will be Cllr Kieran O'Donnell, of Fine Gael, whose uncle, Tom O'Donnell, was a cabinet minister and MEP. O'Donnell - a young chartered accountant with his own practice - is an unknown quantity who performed modestly in the most recent local election, when he took just 8 per cent of the vote. However, senior party officials are no doubt aware that young, largely untested candidates were among their few successes in the last general election. A significant swing towards Fine Gael could see him sweep up a large volume of transfers from former party leader Michael Noonan.
Even amid the wreckage of the Fine Gael election campaign in 2002 the party still managed to increase its vote by 1 per cent. (On that occasion, Noonan's then running-mate, Cllr Mary Jackman, missed out on a seat by just over 300 votes). A stronger swing this time around could see O'Donnell take the seat.
Meanwhile, one person who does not face any re-election worries is Fianna Fáil Minister Willie O'Dea, the legendary constituency operator who recorded the third-highest personal vote in the last election.
The Minister for Defence's army of constituency workers have been working diligently on the ground. So much so that they put their posters up weeks before the election was called. Is his vote large enough to bring in both of his running-mates, outgoing TD Peter Power and Cllr Noreen Ryan? Probably not. Much of O'Dea's vote is a personal one and his transfers tend to fly in different directions.
Power is the stronger of the two running-mates, while Ryan has had a tense relationship with the party in recent months, to put it mildly.
As well as branding her colleagues in the party "chauvinistic begrudgers" earlier this year, many of her election posters fail to mention her two Fianna Fáil running-mates. Add into the mix rumours that party headquarters was poised to place former TD Eddie Wade on the ticket as well, and you have the ingredients for a lively election battle - and that's just within the Fianna Fáil party.
Labour's Jan O'Sullivan, meanwhile, is looking a good prospect for re-election.
Verdict
2 - FF, 2 - FG, 1 - Lab,
FG gain from PDs
