The ban on animal movement imposed by the British government to contain foot-and-mouth disease could create shortages of British meat by the end of the week, the government's head of sustainable food and farming, Sir Don Curry, said yesterday.
Meat processors met officials from the British department for environment, food and rural affairs yesterday to discuss easing some of the foot-and-mouth restrictions under licence from Thursday so that livestock could be moved to slaughter to avoid shortages.
Any movement of livestock from farms to abattoirs would depend on no further outbreaks of the disease being reported in other parts of the country.
The ban on livestock movement will have an immediate impact on food supplies, Mr Curry said. "Within a week we will see short supplies, especially of pork and lamb. Beef has a longer maturation process, so there are perhaps two weeks' stocks, but by the end of this week, if restrictions are not lifted, we will be running out of home-produced lamb and pork."
He anticipated that, as a short-term measure, retailers would be able to make good some of the shortfall with imports.
The British Meat Processors' Association (BMPA), which represents large abattoirs and meet packers, agreed. "If we can't slaughter within the week, it will be increasingly difficult to source British meat. Pork will be hit first, then lamb, and then beef," director Stuart Roberts said.
British beef mince is also likely to be affected quickly, as it has a short life between slaughter and supermarket shelf.
The BMPA met department officials yesterday to discuss how the limited movement of animals could begin again. "We don't want a licensing system that is so complicated that it causes more problems than it solves," Mr Roberts added.
Fear of food shortages was one of the reasons the government delayed introducing a ban on livestock movement during the 2001 outbreak. This led to millions of animals becoming infected.
This time, the government immediately imposed a total ban, a move welcomed by the farming and meat industries. However, pressure will mount over the next few days to ease the ban in some areas. The industry has been told privately that there will be no movement before Thursday, by which time almost a week's production will have been lost.
The large meat packing companies have been talking to foreign suppliers to substitute imports of beef from Ireland and Brazil, lamb from New Zealand and Ireland, and pork from Denmark and Holland, according to the BMPA.
The peak season for slaughtering British lamb is just beginning, and if lambs cannot be moved to abattoirs, they will become too fat and lose value. The same problem affects pigs.
"There is a window of just one week to 10 days once animals reach their peak," Mr Curry said.