IRAQ: In the negotiations which are now under way in Baghdad, Iraq's Shias and other Arabs are prepared to accept the principle of federalism, but they argue that the Kurds are asking for too much.
The Kurds insist that the peshmerga, the Kurdish ethnic militia, should constitute the police, national guard and army in the three Kurdish provinces. But the Shias, representing Arab interests, argue that militia formations must be disbanded and their members absorbed into the national military and police forces for deployment throughout Iraq.
Kurds consider the peshmerga to be the guarantor of their security and autonomy. Arabs see the militia as a force that could be used to secure the secession of the Kurdish region from the country, but they could compromise on this.
The Kurds are seeking to settle 100,000 of their people in Kirkuk, a city of 750,000 divided more or less equally among Kurds, Arabs and Turkomen (ethnic Turks). Local Arabs and Turkomen are strongly and even violently resisting the demographic transformation of the city, which has already fallen under Kurdish political and security control.
Iraq's Arab population - 80-85 per cent of the total - flatly rejects the Kurdification of Kirkuk. Since a substantial proportion of its Arab residents are Shias, the Shia Alliance is not ready to allow Shias or Sunni Arabs to be displaced by Kurds coming in from elsewhere.
The Kurds want a pledge from the Shias that Kirkuk and its neighbouring oilfields will be attached to the Kurdish region under the new constitution, but this is a demand Iraqi Arabs and Turkomen are determined to reject. They believe that once the Kurds hold Kirkuk and its oil resources, they will declare independence and expel non-Kurds from the areas they control.
The Kurds also want a lion's share of oil revenues from the Kirkuk area, but the Shias argue that these funds must be used to reconstruct all provinces, on the basis of need.
As for the cabinet, the Kurds are seeking to retain the deputy premiership and to be given two of the top five ministries. They are also calling for the Shias to agree that, if the Kurds pull out of the government, it will fall. Shia acceptance of the latter demand would give the 15-20 per cent minority Kurds a veto on policy.
Last weekend the sides reportedly agreed that the constitutional commission due to be established by parliament could resolve the main differences. But Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, objected to postponement of the Kurds' major geopolitical demands and sent the negotiators scurrying back to the table. His rival, Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the favourite for president, is more flexible but cannot afford to split the Kurdish front. Therefore, the Kurds are now insisting that their demands must be met before a government is formed.
The Shias have accepted that the constitutional commission should work out how Islam will be incorporated into the constitution - their main demand. The key figure in the cleric-dominated Shia Alliance, Abdel Aziz Hakim, head of the pro-Tehran Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, stated recently that the new constitution should show respect for the "Islamic identity" of Iraq, state that "Islam is the official religion of the state" and declare that "there should not be any law that violates Islam".
Ibrahim Jaafari, spokesman of the Shia Islamist Dawa party (the second-largest in the alliance), who is a contender for the post of prime minister, agrees with Mr Hakim's view. But the Kurds, who are largely Sunni and mainly secular, are not prepared to transform Iraq into an Islamic state dominated by Shia Islamist laymen and mullahs unless the Kurdish region is very loosely tied to Arab Iraq.
