INDONESIA:There is growing confidence that the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali will produce a mandate for tough talks next year aimed at agreeing a timetable for making deep cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming.
Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, under whose auspices the conference is being held, said yesterday: "Things are going well here, all of the negotiating groups are launched and there seems to be a good mood."
Wearing a colourful Indonesian batik shirt, the Dutch director of the UNFCCC described as "very encouraging" the news that the US Senate's environment and public works committee had adopted a Bill to impose mandatory limits on US emissions from 2012 onwards.
The draft legislation, adopted by 11 votes to eight, would require power plants, large manufacturers and the transportation sector to cut their emissions gradually, with the aim of achieving a 62 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by 2050. It will now go to the full Senate.
Asked if this would leave the US delegation in Bali even more isolated, Mr de Boer said he did not believe it would. "The present [ Bush] administration is here to negotiate, to design a post-2012 climate change regime that the US would be prepared to be a party to."
A significant number of US senators are expected in Bali next week, including California Democrat Barbara Boxer, who chairs the environment and public works committee, and senator John Kerry, the party's presidential candidate in 2004.
"It is clear that every country in the world has been shocked by the findings of the IPCC [ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], and they know what failing to act could mean in the future," Mr de Boer said. "Therefore, it is in no country's interest to slow down action."
Recalling that the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 in the wake of earlier IPCC scientific assessments, he said: "This process is science-driven, and I would expect the latest reports of the IPCC to be the engine to drive the next stage forward here in Bali."
It has also been suggested that the IPCC should update its Fourth Assessment Report, published in tranches this year, in 2008 to give even more up-to-date information for the negotiations. Until now, there was a time lag of several years between IPCC reports.
During informal discussions at the conference, Mr de Boer said a large number of countries or blocs - including China, Brazil, the US and EU - were putting forward interesting proposals on what the "Bali road map" should look like and where it might lead.
"Industrialised countries need to continue to take the lead and reduce their emissions by 25 to 40 per cent by 2020," he said. Indeed, those who ratified Kyoto - including Australia - have already agreed to do so, and the task now was to draw the US into this process.
The 10,226 participants already here as of yesterday include not just government officials and environmental groups but also numerous representatives of the private sector who had, as Mr de Boer said, "come to Bali to engage in the debate and offer solutions".
He singled out a new report by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, which suggests that emissions from the electricity generation sector could be cut by 21 gigatonnes by adopting alternative power sources, including nuclear energy.
Hans Jürgen Stehr, chairman of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) set up under Kyoto, said its approved projects in developing countries were worth an estimated $5.7 billion (€3.9 billion) last year alone - three times more than these countries were receiving in overseas aid.
With applications for CDM certification running at up to 140 per month, Mr Stehr said the total value of projects in the pipeline was $25 billion. These included schemes to turn methane gas from dumps into an energy source, or simply replacing inefficient old boilers with new ones.
As Mr de Boer noted, the transfer of clean technology to developing countries would not only enable them to find a more sustainable path to economic growth but also make it possible for developed countries to earn credits under the CDM to offset against their own emissions.
Kyoto had also "created a unique environmental commodity on the international market" through carbon emissions trading. "This was worth $30 billion in 2006 and is estimated to be much higher this year," he said. "The trade in carbon is truly global and it's growing."
Africa is losing out, however. Of 850 CDM projects in 49 developing countries, only 23 are in Africa. "It's time that the benefits of this important Kyoto Protocol mechanism were expanded in Africa,", Mr de Boer said.
Another hot issue is deforestation. With 13 million hectares being felled annually, mainly in the tropical rainforests, this is believed to account for 20 per cent of global carbon emissions.
Agencies add: An analysis by WorldPublicOpinion.org of 11 recent international polls reveals strong support around the world for decisive action to reduce the emission of climate-changing gases.
In most countries, majorities see an urgent need for significant action. For example, a recent poll for the BBC by GlobeScan and the Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) found that majorities in 15 out of 21 countries felt that it was necessary to take "major steps, starting very soon" to address climate change. In the other six countries polled, opinion was divided over whether "major" or "modest steps" were needed. Only small minorities thought no steps were necessary.
In a 2007 Pew poll, majorities in all 37 countries surveyed agreed that "global warming" is a serious problem. Majorities in 25 and pluralities in six rated the problem as "very serious".
