The Irish and British governments are convinced that restoring the Northern Executive and Assembly now hinges on whether DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, is prepared to advise his party to accept the current deal.
The DUP and Sinn Féin will be presented with the two governments' understanding of what is an acceptable formula for restoring the Northern Executive and Assembly next week, and will be given a week or two to accept or reject the document, informed sources told The Irish Times last night. If the deal is rejected by one or both parties the governments then plan to publish all or a considerable portion of the proposals in December to allow the public to determine for itself whether a fair deal was on offer, the sources added.
The governments still believe the main stumbling block to agreement lies with the DUP and that ultimately it will be for Dr Paisley to determine whether or not his party will endorse what Dublin and London feel are reasonable proposals.
The DUP assertively denies there are any divisions within the party but the governments believe that some in the DUP want to do a deal now, others totally oppose a deal and a third, possibly ascendant, group, don't want to do a deal until after the Westminster elections, expected in the spring or early summer of next year.
"We believe there is a good deal on the table but whether it will work or not is really down to Ian Paisley. He has to decide whether he wants to lead his party over the threshold now," said a well-placed source.
Dublin and London have told the DUP that the IRA has made its firmest commitment yet to decommission and end activity. Democratic Unionists, however, are holding out for what the governments fear may be unreasonable demands for a "visual aspect" to disarmament, according to leading talks sources.
Senior DUP personnel concede that considerable progress on disarmament and other matters was achieved since the Leeds Castle talks in September but contend that a visual element to decommissioning is essential as a deal would only work if unionists were convinced of the credibility of IRA disarmament.
That credibility can be established by means short of what the DUP is seeking, the governments respond. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, made it clear earlier this week that the nature of renewed IRA decommissioning must be more convincing than the last act of disarmament in October of last year but that the "transparency" that the DUP was seeking could be interpreted as an attempt to humiliate republicans.
Some behind-the-scenes discussions between the parties and the governments will continue in the coming days but essentially the governments believe the negotiations have come to an end.
Dublin and London sources said such was the positive nature of the IRA pledge to cease activity and disarm that the governments were anxious that that commitment not be lost. "What is available appears to measure up to the 'act of completion' requirement made by Tony Blair in his Belfast Harbour Commissioners speech two years ago," said one insider. Another talks source explained issues such as accountability and policing were not fully resolved but the main problem was the "transparency" of IRA decommissioning.
Sinn Féin president Mr Gerry Adams, returning from the US yesterday, said the "DUP must understand, and the governments must make it clear, that the refusal by Ian Paisley to reach agreement with the rest of us cannot stop the process of change".
