DUP leader the Rev Ian Paisley will retire as a Westminster MP at the British general election now widely expected in the summer of next year, The Irish Timeshas learned.
This news will fuel feverish ongoing discussions among senior DUP MPs and Assembly Members about the possible timetable for the eventual election of Dr Paisley's successor as party leader.
Dr Paisley's long-serving deputy and Stormont Finance Minister, Peter Robinson is the current favourite to succeed. However, some senior sources insist there is no consensus behind one candidate and it is believed North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds could also be a contender when Dr Paisley finally declares his intention to stand down.
A majority of the DUP's MPs are now privately indicating their belief that this should be sooner rather than later, with some advocating a handover as early as this summer in order to allow a new leader to establish himself ahead of the general election in which the party hopes to increase further its Westminster representation.
However, these calculations cut across Dr Paisley's declared
intention to serve his full four-year term as First Minister in
Northern Ireland's powersharing Executive. Dr Paisley, who will be
82 in April, repeated that commitment during an appearance at the
Labour Party conference in Bournemouth last September in direct
response to media inquiries prompted by the last burst of internal
DUP speculation
about his position.
The Irish Timeshas learned that the party's MPs were
engaged in intense private discussions in the same month about a
possible approach to Dr Paisley to discuss the future leadership.
Those discussions
were closed down when it emerged that prime minister Gordon
Brown was seriously considering
a snap autumn poll. In response to that possibility, sources
close to Dr Paisley say he also had little choice but to confirm
his intention to defend his North Antrim seat.
With the general election delayed at least until next year,
however - and the strong indication that Dr Paisley has "fought his
last" - party loyalists suggest various permutations now present
themselves.
One such could have Dr Paisley relinquishing the leadership
he has held since founding the DUP in 1971, while seeking to remain
as First Minister at Stormont until his term expires in 2011, after
he enters
his 86th year.
Despite his age, Dr Paisley shows no loss of enthusiasm for the
job he assumed after last year's historic
DUP/Sinn Féin agreement following on from the St Andrews
negotiations. It was generally recognised, inside the DUP and in
wider governmental and political circles, that Dr Paisley's
personal commitment was key to the successful restoration of the
institutions of government established under the Belfast Agreement.
In the same spirit, Dr Paisley clearly considers it his duty to
remain in-post to see the powersharing arrangements successfully
bedded down and secured.
Even among those most impatientnow for a change of leader, there
is also acknowledgment of some risk that Dr Paisley's early
departure could see the DUP adopt a more confrontational attitude
to its Sinn Féin partners in government. Against that, MPs in
particular make no secret of the fact that the desire for change
has been fed by the "Chuckle Brothers" image that has come to
characterise Dr Paisley's
surprisingly warm personal relationship with Deputy First
Minister Martin McGuinness.
And with the march of time, as one MP put it last night, "there simply has to be a question about his apacity to continue doing the job". The MP confirmed there was "no plot" to force the pace on the leadership issue, insisting "that isn't the nature" of the now widespread discussion about the timing of the succession.