Ulster Unionist strategy on policing and on returning to government with Sinn Fein will be debated at three crucial meetings this week. The party's 14-strong officer board will meet tomorrow and its 120strong executive will gather in Belfast the following day. There will also be a meeting of its Assembly team at Stormont this week.
The UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, has returned from holiday in Austria. The pro-agreement parties have until September 23rd to reach a deal. If they fail, the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, will for the second time have two choices - to suspend the Assembly and announce a review of the Belfast Agreement or to call fresh Assembly elections.
Many politicians, including Dr Reid, are still on holiday. Low-level discussions between junior Northern Ireland Office figures and the parties are expected to resume next week and Dr Reid is maintaining regular contact with his officials.
More intense negotiations, involving the main players, will not begin until the second week of September.
Nobody is optimistic about the chances of success. UUP sources say Mr Trimble is facing a far more difficult situation.
"David has no room to manoeuvre. The hand of the anti-agreement wing has been strengthened considerably. Everything has gone their way," says a senior source. For "everything" read the arrest earlier this month of three republicans in Colombia. "No one should underestimate the importance of Colombia," says leading anti-agreement MP Mr Jeffrey Donaldson.
"The chances of a deal have been substantially weakened. Ordinary unionists are very strongly opposed to us returning to government with Sinn Fein. Colombia has been seismic for `middle Ulster'."
At this week's meetings, Mr Donaldson will be urging his party to support a DUP motion, which will be tabled when the Assembly reconvenes next month, calling for Sinn Fein's exclusion from government.
The motion will fail because cross-community support is required and the SDLP will refuse to back it. But a joining of forces by the UUP and DUP would be significant. The UUP has so far refused to back various DUP exclusion motions. A sign of the changing climate in the party came when Assembly member Mr Billy Armstrong - a pro-agreement supporter of Mr Trimble - this week called for Sinn Fein's exclusion from government
Mr Donaldson will also be arguing for close co-operation with the DUP on the policing issue, which will also be at the top of the agenda at this week's meetings.
The DUP is refusing to nominate members to the Policing Board until Dr Reid agrees to significant changes to the policing implementation plan, which was recently published.
Mr Donaldson believes his party should adopt a similar policy. "The phasing out of the RUC reserve and the proposals for Special Branch are unacceptable.
"Until the government withdraws these concessions to Sinn Fein, we should withhold our support," said Mr Donaldson.
The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, does not believe the pro-agreement parties will be able to reach a deal by September 23rd. "It would be incomprehensible for Trimble to return to government with Sinn Fein after the Colombian escapade. His party will not allow him to do it." Following the temporary suspension of the Assembly earlier this month, the Provisional IRA withdrew its offer to put arms beyond use.
Senior unionists say that even the reinstatement of that offer is not enough now. "Post-Colombia much, much more is required of the IRA," said a source. "There is huge distrust in our community. Sinn Fein has not even been able to offer a credible excuse for Colombia."
The SDLP chairman, Mr Alex Attwood, said all sides should work hard to reach a deal over the next three weeks. "We have a short window of opportunity. All the parties should remember that. All the paramilitaries need to maintain or resume contact with Gen de Chastelain's decommissioning body and there has to be progress on putting weapons beyond use."
Mr Attwood urged the British government to publish its criminal justice implementation plan and the draft legislation. There also must be moves on demilitarisation, he added. Of the four main parties, the SDLP alone has agreed to nominate members to the new police boards. If neither the UUP nor the DUP nominate, the policing proposals would be significantly weakened.
Even those normally optimistic about the North's political process are sceptical that a deal can be reached by September 23rd. If the attempts fail, the most likely scenario is for Dr Reid to again temporarily suspend the Assembly, but this time announce a full-blown review of the agreement.