ItalyThe centre-right government of Silvio Berlusconi has been plunged into its worst political crisis since taking office in June 2001 following the decision by two of its smaller coalition allies, the Union of Christian Democrats (UDC) and the New Socialist Party, to withdraw from government.
Their decision yesterday was prompted by the disastrous showing of the coalition at recent regional elections in which opposition centre-left forces won 11 out of 13 regional presidencies.
That defeat was largely determined by Italy's economic crisis, in which inflation far outstrips growth. Furthermore, many voters were probably alarmed by a series of federalist reforms introduced last month and heavily promoted by another government partner, the Northern League.
Immediately after that heavy defeat, UDC leader Marco Follini called on Mr Berlusconi to resign and call a general election. Later Mr Follini changed tack, calling on him to dissolve his current cabinet, form a new government team and present it to parliament.
Although the UDC is a relatively small party, having won 3.2 per cent of the votes for the lower house in 2001, it could still theoretically defeat the government in the senate, where it holds 31 seats.
The UDC had four ministers in the Berlusconi government, including Mr Follini, the deputy premier, and European Affairs minister Rocco Buttiglione, who provoked a major storm at European Parliament hearings last autumn with his views on homosexuality.
The Socialist Party holds two minor government posts.
The prime minister has made it clear in the last 10 days that he has no intention of calling an early general election. "I haven't ruled anything out," he said yesterday. "I'm not afraid of crises. If others betray the way Italians voted, that's not my business.You're not going to get rid of me that easily."
Mr Berlusconi has two options. He may decide to replace the UDC cabinet ministers and present his new team in parliament, daring the UDC to vote against him in the senate, or he may tender his resignation to President Ciampi, offering to form an administration that would, presumably, include the UDC.
He could also offer his resignation, declaring his unwillingness to form a new government. Then the president would have to decide between calling a general election or trying to find someone else capable of forming a government that would limp through to end of the legislature, in a year.
Given Mr Berlusconi's repeated refusal to resign, however, this seems improbable. He is likely to replace the departed ministers, probably early next week, and then call the UDC's bluff in parliament, hoping to survive the crucial senate vote.