Analysis: The Coalition may yet agree on who should operate a second terminal at Dublin airport, reports Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
The Tánaiste responded tersely yesterday to Martin Cullen's suggestion that a second terminal at Dublin airport would not necessarily be run by an independent operator, independent of the Dublin Airport Authority. Her remark that it was not "very helpful" for ministers to go public on a question that had not yet been decided by Cabinet betrayed the tension that has existed between the coalition parties on this issue since 2002. Some usually reliable sources last night said Fianna Fáil and the PDs were closer to agreement than the public exchanges suggested. As of now, however, there is no deal.
The future of aviation in Ireland has stood for several years now as an unresolved issue that could drive a chasm between the coalition parties. The naive might believe that a decision on whether to sell all, or part, or none of Aer Lingus, and a decision on who should own and operate a new airport terminal would involve a relatively simple pragmatic calculation followed by a quick decision.
But the question is deeply political. On one side are the Progressive Democrats, arguing that competition is almost always the best means to efficiency and to providing the best service for the consumer. Competition has brought down air fares, and thanks to the PDs it has brought a better taxi service and has improved the service on certain bus routes.
The Dublin Airport Authority, in contrast, faces no competition and at times can resemble, as Michael O'Leary says, the Black Hole of Calcutta. A second terminal operated independently of the authority would bring competition, force up the quality of service, force down airport charges and bring benefits all round, say the PDs.
On the other side you have Fianna Fáil with a pragmatic rather than an ideological view of competition. They listen more sympathetically to trade unions who argue that competition will lead to a deterioration of workers' pay and conditions. The party also holds marginal seats in several north Dublin constituencies, inhabited by thousands of voters who either work at the airport or with Aer Lingus.
The claim by Mr O'Leary that the Government has broken commitments in the Programme for Government is true to a limited extent. While the PDs favoured privatisation of Aer Lingus, this was not promised. Nevertheless the sale of a majority stake now appears likely.
In relation to airports the change has been less dramatic. The programme promised the building of a low-cost facility at Pier D in Dublin airport. There is no sign of this. On the other hand it promised the independence of Cork and Shannon airports, which has been delivered.
In relation to the crucial question of an independent second terminal, the programme is much less clear-cut than Mr O'Leary likes to suggest. "We will examine proposals for a new independent terminal at Dublin airport and progress them if the evidence suggests that such a terminal will deliver significant benefits," is all it says.
The concept of "a new independent terminal" is not very specific. It does not make clear whether the second terminal should be independently owned (which Mr Cullen says he is against) or independently operated (which Mr Cullen says has not yet been decided).
Whatever the programme says, the PDs believe the new terminal should be independently operated. Mr Cullen appeared yesterday to leave open the possibility that it would not be. Both sides sought to play down the clear impression that a tense stand-off went public as Mr Cullen and Ms Harney expressed themselves on the national airwaves on the matter.
There will be no deal at next Tuesday's Cabinet meeting but none could be expected because the Tánaiste will be attending another long-standing engagement and won't be there. With negotiations having gone on for so long, a deal would be expected at the following meeting, in early May.
If there isn't one then we will know that the disagreement has become a serious problem for the Government.