ANALYSIS:Although he was elected as leader of the PDs, Senator Ciarán Cannon finds himself cast instead in the role of liquidator, wrties Deaglán De Bréadún
LIKE SOME drawn-out death scene in a bad movie, the demise of the Progressive Democrats has not been a pretty sight.
The saga of Noel Grealish and his political intentions has at this stage assumed near-farcical proportions. Although the message on the Galway West TD's mobile phone promises to get back to the caller "as soon as possible", he has in fact been incommunicado in media terms for some time now.
There is general consensus that Mr Grealish is heading into the arms of Fianna Fáil. However, in the interests of good inter-party relations, it seems that the Soldiers of Destiny will spare Mary Harney's blushes and hold back from unveiling their new recruit at their parliamentary party "think-in" taking place in Galway today and tomorrow.
Last Thursday's national executive meeting of the PDs in Dublin sounded the death-knell of a party which at one time was setting the agenda in Irish politics. A PD parliamentary party meeting scheduled for the previous evening was cancelled after Mr Grealish cried off, due to a sudden bereavement.
The national executive was meant to discuss next year's local elections, but this item faded from sight when Mary Harney gave a very gloomy assessment of the future of the party. "She just said that, realistically, we have only two TDs and, if Noel Grealish goes, that's it," well-informed sources told The Irish Times.
The truth of her remarks struck home and, as one activist put it, "You don't have to be Einstein to see the writing on the wall."
However, well-placed sources deny that Harney told the meeting of 18 to 20 party activists that Fine Gael was also going nowhere.
Ms Harney was unable to stay for the entire meeting because of another commitment, but she did remain for about an hour-and-a- half and the meeting continued for almost three hours, as participants digested the words of their former leader. "Her message was that, if Noel Grealish goes, we are only fooling ourselves to think that there's any great future for the party," say PD insiders.
The PDs were founded on a wave of emotion back in 1985 and most of those present on Thursday night had invested a great deal of their time and psychic energy in the party over many years. The imminent prospect of political oblivion is therefore an upsetting thought.
"People have all sorts of emotions about it. There are people who are cross and they don't know who to be cross with," say party sources.
With the exception of Mary Harney, all the major figures in the PDs are no longer active at leadership level. Michael McDowell, Liz O'Donnell and Tom Parlon were among the six out of the party's eight TDs who lost their seats in last year's general election, and other key figures such as Des O'Malley and Bobby Molloy have long since retired from politics. "The last election was the beginning of the end," says a weary activist.
Interestingly, sources close to last Thursday's meeting say there was "no sense whatsoever of an impending merger with Fianna Fáil". The matter was not discussed at the national executive, and the only mention of Fianna Fáil was in relation to the prospect that Noel Grealish was about to join that party.
There are few precedents for political parties encompassing their own demise. "There are no guidelines for ending it . . . Who has the power? That's the $64,000 question," said PD sources. It's not a prospect party members relish. "People have huge emotions and huge feelings," says one PD activist. "It's not like a hobby or a bridge club. So much of our lives, our existence and being was wrapped up in it."
"It's devastating to me that the PDs would no longer be there," says a senior party member. "But what can you do? The people didn't vote for us and that's it."
Although he was elected as party leader, Senator Ciarán Cannon finds himself cast instead in the role of liquidator. He denied yesterday that any merger deal had been done with Fianna Fáil, and expressed doubts that there would be "a critical mass of defections" which would precipitate a merger.
The Galway senator is well-liked, but the real authority in the party is Mary Harney, the sole PD representative at Cabinet. It was her words, and not his, which convinced party activists last Thursday it may be time to take to the lifeboats.
There is also a sense of obligation towards local election candidates and a feeling that they should be given an opportunity to find a new party label in time for next year's elections.
Most observers believe that, whatever her colleagues decide, Harney will not join Fianna Fáil. But she is well-regarded by the larger party, which values her role as a "flak-catcher" in the Department of Health and Children. Although there would appear to be little advantage for Fianna Fáil in awarding her a place on the European Commission in succession to Charlie McCreevy, speculation continues about such a move on the part of Brian Cowen.
A meeting of the four-strong PD parliamentary party is set to take place tomorrow, but the more important gathering will be the encounter between the party's Leinster House representatives and local councillors at Newbridge, Co Kildare, tomorrow evening.
How many of them will clamber aboard the welcoming lifeboats called Fianna Fáil and, in some cases, Fine Gael, and how many will go down with the ship should be known very soon.