ANALYSIS:COUNTING WAS painfully slow in the Assembly elections at eight count centres throughout Northern Ireland yesterday but the countenances of the political leaders provided indications of how the results might pan out sometime later today.
Peter Robinson had a warm, relaxed smile on his face when he arrived at the East Belfast count centre in Newtownards shortly before teatime. A year ago, in the story of that election, he lost his Westminster seat to Naomi Long of Alliance and his political future was in the balance.
Yesterday, women supporters hugged and kissed him outside Ards Leisure Centre. Men shook his hand. He was on course to hold his seat and bring two DUP colleagues into Stormont with him. A year is a long time . . .
About the same time Gerry Adams was in the King’s Hall centre, also in genial mood, observing how Sinn Féin was on track to hold five seats in West Belfast despite his shifting south of the Border to become the TD for Co Louth.
So, signs on for a good election for the DUP and Sinn Féin. There are 18 six-seater constituencies and it won’t be until later today, when the fifth and sixth seats are finally allocated, that we will learn whether the DUP has held its 36 seats from 2007 or advanced on that figure, and whether Sinn Féin has held its 28 seats or broken the 30-seat figure.
Funny things can happen in the final counts but it seems the DUP will remain the dominant party and that Peter Robinson will be returned as First Minister, with Martin McGuinness as Deputy First Minister.
SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie’s facial expression was one of anxiety and hopeful expectation. Four years ago the SDLP came fourth of the four main parties with 16 MLAs returned. It seemed to have a good chance of holding 16 with possibility of a gain, but it would be down to the final counts.
Ulster Unionist leader Tom Elliott had the gloomiest expression with talk of problems in constituencies such as North Down and East Derry. The party won 18 seats in 2007 and it was not beyond the bounds of possibility that the SDLP would eclipse it this time.
Alliance leader David Ford looked satisfied, with Anna Lo topping the poll in South Belfast and prospects of the party increasing its seven seats from 2007. In the BBC political leaders’ debate the SDLP and UUP leaders portrayed him as a “lapdog” of Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness. Mr Ford took time out last night to again reject the taunt and to point to results demonstrating the correctness of the Alliance policies and strategy.
Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister never looks happy but nonetheless he was in with a reasonable chance of being elected in North Antrim, offering hardline opposition to the Belfast Agreement and a contrary voice at Stormont. But late last night there was a question over whether he would get enough transfers.
The counting was embarrassingly slow. One excuse was that the votes in the alternative vote (AV) referendum and in the 26 local council elections, as well as the Assembly votes, had to be verified before counting proper could start. Other factors were some counters failing to turn up for work and wet ballot papers. There was relief at 7pm when three MLAs were elected in Newry and Armagh, with Upper Bann following with the election of Sinn Féin’s John O’Dowd. The hope is for a little more pace today.
