Letter from Sydney:For weeks now the smart money has been on a November 10th election. Australia's three- year federal election cycle is up on October 9th, but because of how the electoral law is written, it could be held as late as January 19th, writes Padraig Collins.
The Canberra commentariat confidently picked November 10th because John Howard's Liberal/National Coalition has been so far behind in every poll (more than 50 of them) since last December.
The theory is he needs some extra time to claw back on Labor's lead, but waiting till January - the height of Australia's summer - would be too risky. Many people wait to take their Christmas/summer holidays after Australia Day, January 26th, and may not take kindly to the intrusion of an election and compulsory voting.
But the past week has seen two factors challenge the received wisdom: an interest rate rise and, possibly, the first green shoots of a comeback for Howard.
Labor sought to make hay out of the rate rise following Howard's now infamous quote from the 2004 election campaign: "Who do you trust to keep interest rates low?" Last week's rise was the fifth since then and the ninth since 2002.
However, this week's Sydney Morning Herald newspaper poll saw Labor's primary vote fall three points to 46 per cent and the coalition's rise two to 41. When preferences are included, Labor is still in a comfortable winning position, but it wasn't supposed to be like this. The exposing, again, of Howard's interest rate fallacy was supposed to benefit the opposition, not the coalition.
Perhaps the recent turmoil in the world's share markets has prompted some to overlook the rate rise and think, "better the devil you know". However, with another interest rise widely predicted for as early as November, October 13th or 20th now look more likely election days.
Although the election has yet to be called, the phoney campaign has been full steam ahead for months. Billions are being promised, marginal seats are being pork- barrelled, candidates are being announced and posters are appearing.
This week saw eight huge billboards erected in Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide of a smiling John Howard and his quote: "Working families in Australia have never been better off".
Labor is hoping people are beginning to view Howard as arrogant, out of touch with ordinary Australians and past his use-by date - he's 68, Labor leader Kevin Rudd is 49.
This is where a mid-October election will suit the incumbents, though. The date could be announced immediately after the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation meeting in Sydney from September 7th to 9th, where Howard will rub shoulders with George Bush, Shinzo Abe and others.
This would then mean a five-week campaign during the Australian Rules football and rugby league play-offs and finals. In a sport-mad country, these games will suck oxygen and momentum from the opposition's campaign. Water cooler conversations will more likely concern who's fit to play than who's fit to govern.
For the moment though the phoney campaign is all we have. The government has bought so much television advertising in the past couple of weeks that Coca-Cola and other major companies have complained there are no slots left for them to buy.
The government was forced to pull one of its ads. An actor portraying a dad, who says the government will protect his son from unscrupulous employers, has turned out to be a painting contractor who has been accused of, you guessed it, ripping off young employees, including his own, now estranged, son. He was also using a pseudonym, which is an issue when all political ads have to, by law, name the people with speaking parts.
A coalition of 19 business groups has also launched a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign in support of the government, while the Australian Congress of Trade Unions is spending millions in support of Labor.
Labor is doing its best not to spook those considering voting for it this time. On several major issues there is little or no difference between it and the government. This came to a head recently when Labor backed the government in the case of Indian doctor Mohamed Haneef, who was arrested in Brisbane over alleged links with the failed London and Glasgow bombings.
Immigration minister Kevin Andrews said: "Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have today said that they believe the Australian government has acted in 'good faith' and 'handled appropriately' the cancellation of Dr Haneef's visa. The Australian people deserve more than cheap talk from Mr Rudd and his deputy."
Strange days indeed when a government implores the opposition to disagree with it. But never mind the polls, Labor needs to win at least 16 seats to form a government; this is shaping up to be the closest - and probably dirtiest - Australian election for a generation.