Paris Letter: Nicolas Sarkozy has played Brutus to Jacques Chirac's Caesar for years. The French interior minister built his popularity on sniping at the president's "old-fashioned ways" and "immobility". When he compared Chirac to Louis XIV on Bastille Day, some thought Sarkozy went too far.
Until recently, a final duel on the French right between Chirac and Sarkozy for the 2007 presidential nomination was considered inevitable. But the No victory in the May 29th referendum on the EU treaty and the "mini-stroke" that landed Chirac in hospital for a week this month have made it unlikely Chirac will seek a third term.
In the meantime, a new reality has crept up on the ruthlessly ambitious Sarkozy. Jean-Louis Debré, the speaker of the National Assembly and a devoted chiraquien, calls it "the divine surprise": Dominique de Villepin, the aristocrat whom Chirac made prime minister on May 31st, has become popular enough to challenge Sarkozy for the presidential nomination.
When he was appointed, the press mocked de Villepin, a former foreign minister who writes poetry and was prone to effusive speeches. But he has surprised everyone, says Patrick Jarreau of Le Monde, "by approaching his job in a pragmatic, modest, rational and reasonable way that is respectful of his interlocutors - the exact opposite of the image we had of him".
It is symptomatic of France's obsession with its monarchical presidency that 19 months before the election, le match Villepin- Sarko dominates political commentary.
Sarkozy took over Chirac's UMP party last November. Its treasury - and the power to designate parliamentary candidates - are a huge advantage. But if de Villepin wins over la France profonde, the UMP could become an empty fortress.
A photograph taken at a UMP congress this week shows de Villepin, with his splendid silver mane, slightly bending one knee so as not to tower over the short Sarkozy, who stretches upward on the toes of his shoes.
De Villepin's patrician looks are not his only advantage over "Sarko". The son of a former industrialist who became a senator, the French prime minister (along with his brother and sister) attended the country's most prestigious institution, the École Nationale d'Administration.
The de Villepin glamour extends through the family: elder daughter Marie (19) modelled Givenchy, Valentino and Chanel for Elle magazine last week.
Sarkozy is the son of a Hungarian immigrant who left him to be raised by his mother and maternal grandfather, a Jewish immigrant from Salonica.
"No one ever gave me anything," Sarkozy often says. "I had to struggle to get where I am today." Although "Sarko" still surpasses de Villepin in popularity ratings, he is going through a rough patch.
This summer, his second wife Cecilia left him and was photographed in New York by Paris Match magazine with her new companion, a public relations executive. Sarkozy suffered from a cold at the UMP's get-together in La Baule this month, while the athletic de Villepin was filmed jogging on the beach.
Then Chirac was hospitalised and asked de Villepin to replace him at a cabinet meeting and at the United Nations general assembly.
There were grumblings about Chirac's dynastic bent in designating de Villepin, but for the most part reaction was positive. "France is watching the one she did not expect in this role with curiosity," Le Monde said of de Villepin. "Like a family who suddenly see a possible son-in-law emerge from a crowd of suitors."
Although de Villepin and Sarkozy are both nominally Gaullists, their vision of France, its place in the world and the answers to its problems are diametrically opposed.
De Villepin believes in la France éternelle. "France still burns with a desire for History; she has kept intact the flame of a great nation," the prime minister wrote in The Cry of the Gargoyle, one of seven books he has published. Though he has introduced modest economic reforms, de Villepin is careful not to frighten his skittish compatriots with radical change.
Sarkozy doesn't think much of de Villepin's struggle to achieve "socially oriented growth" and has shifted his barbs from Chirac to the prime minister, saying he feels "exasperated by these interminable speeches that invariably evoke social justice, social progress, social policy".
Sarkozy's France is "the France that gets up early in the morning" - not that of sleep-in welfare addicts. If Sarkozy had his way, he'd gut the labour code, drastically reduce the civil service and cut the wealth tax.
De Villepin's skill at avoiding confrontation with the pugnacious Sarkozy has strengthened his image as a consensual leader.
Polls show he has even won favour among left-wing voters. But can de Villepin turn the French economy around without inciting mass street demonstrations? If he succeeds, Sarkozy may never make it to the Élysée Palace.
