EU leaders began talks aimed at solving Europe's constitutional crisis last night with Poland and Britain outlining their opposition to elements of a new draft EU treaty, writes Jamie Smythin Brussels
Before the EU summit began Polish prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said the chances of a deal were 50/50 while British prime minister Tony Blair said they were only "touch and go".
"This is going to be a very tough negotiation. We've set out four areas on which we need to see significant change. We have to see that change," said Mr Blair, who is desperate to avoid holding a referendum on a treaty that would likely be lost.
Germany, the current holder of the EU presidency, has proposed the outline of a new treaty to replace the EU constitution, which was rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005. The draft is supported by most states, but Britain, Poland and the Netherlands raised certain objections in talks between leaders over dinner last night.
German chancellor Angela Merkel, who is chairing the talks, called for compromise and said all EU states would be treated equally in the talks.
She said it was time for Europe to end the "inward-looking process" of treaty reform and focus on "big issues - peace, prosperity and growth".
Britain opposes several parts of the draft treaty that it believes could infringe on its national sovereignty.
It has concerns over an extension of the EU's role in foreign affairs, removing national vetoes over justice and giving legal status to a charter of citizens' rights.
Poland has only one major problem with the treaty, a new EU voting system that boosts the voting weight of states with big populations. Warsaw argues this unfairly boosts the voting power of Germany and has threatened to veto a deal unless its concerns are taken into account.
Ahead of the summit Mr Kaczynski ratcheted up the tension by claiming that if it were not for the Nazi occupation of Poland, it would have a population almost double its current 38 million.
"If Poland had not had to live through the years 1939-45, Poland would be today looking at the demographics of a country of 66 million," said Mr Kaczynski, invoking a wartime theme that paints Warsaw as the historical victim in its relationship with its larger neighbour.
But EU diplomats at the summit said there were signs of compromise in the Polish position and it was no longer "willing to die" for the so-called "square root voting system".
This system would give more voting power to medium-sized states such as Poland. However, it is opposed by almost all other states, except the Czech Republic, because introducing the system would destroy the delicate institutional balance achieved in almost three years of talks on the EU constitution.
One sign of compromise in the Polish position was that president Lech Kaczynski is attending the summit rather than his brother Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
Diplomats said that the president was less likely to issue a veto on a new treaty than his hardline brother.
Meanwhile, France, Italy and Spain came out strongly in support of the German draft treaty and asked those member states with problems to accept it as a compromise.
Yet Paris also sought to change elements of the draft treaty, which relate to economic affairs. EU diplomats said it wanted to remove a reference to "free and undistorted" competition from the treaty and add the promotion of economic growth to the missions of the European Central Bank, alongside maintaining price stability.
The proposal is likely to face strong opposition from Britain and more liberal new member states in central Europe.