The assassination has flung Pakistan into one of the worst crises of its 60- year history, writes Mary Fitzgerald, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
Born into one of Pakistan's most storied political dynasties, Benazir Bhutto liked to cast herself as one whose destiny was inextricably linked with that of her country.
Before her triumphant return to her homeland in October after eight years of self-imposed exile, she told reporters of her wish to "save" Pakistan from military rule and extremism. It was not to be. Her assassination yesterday has flung Pakistan into one of the worst crises of its 60-year history, one whose aftershocks will undoubtedly be felt for some time yet.
Bhutto (54) died in hospital after being targeted during an election rally in the city of Rawalpindi. At least 15 other people were killed in the attack, which came hours after supporters of Nawaz Sharif, another election candidate and a bitter opponent of president Pervez Musharraf, came under fire from gunmen.
There are many who will see in Bhutto's death a certain inevitability. No one was more aware than Bhutto herself of the many enemies she had in Pakistan and no one was more aware that her homecoming posed serious risks, not only to her party's fortunes, but also to her own personal safety. In an interview with The Irish Times in July, Bhutto was fatalistic about the possibility that she could be assassinated on her return to Pakistan.
"I know that dangers lurk there but I don't dwell on issues of safety and security because there is no point," she said. "You should dwell on the things you can do and what I can do is try to take good security measures."
The former prime minister had no shortage of enemies. Apart from her political rivals, Bhutto had long been a hate figure for those who inhabit the shadowy overlap between jihadi groups and Pakistan's intelligence services. "She had been warned and openly threatened by many groups in the last six months," says retired Pakistani major Ikram Sehgal, now a security analyst.
Sehgal, like many others, believes militants, including individuals linked to the Taliban and al-Qaeda, carried out the assassination. "All signs point to a jihadi attack," he says.
Others say the involvement of Bhutto's political foes and those close to Musharraf should not be ruled out. Bhutto's supporters shouted abuse and insults at Musharraf after news of her death spread.
The fact that the attack took place in Rawalpindi, the garrison town which is home to Pakistan's military, will fuel suspicion and conspiracy theories.
Bhutto narrowly escaped assassination on her return from exile in October when a suicide bomber targeted her homecoming rally in Karachi, killing 140 people. Even though the Karachi bombing followed threats from several militant groups, many of Bhutto's supporters assumed Pakistan's intelligence services had a hand in it.
The former prime minister's campaign directors had complained several times that not enough was being done to ensure her safety.
Aside from who was to blame, there is the question of what impact Bhutto's death will have on Pakistan in the immediate future. Already there have been violent clashes between Bhutto's supporters and the security forces in several cities. Many in Pakistan suspect Musharraf, who stepped down as army chief two weeks ago under intense international pressure, will use the assassination to reimpose the emergency rule he had only just lifted and cancel, or at least postpone, elections scheduled for January 8th.
"There is a good possibility that elections will be postponed for some time," Asad Durrani, former director of the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence services, told The Irish Times by telephone. "It is very difficult to predict how the aftermath to this will play out. It will create a vacuum and there is no doubt there will be much uncertainty and commotion, but this is not the first time Pakistan has experienced such turmoil. We have to see what steps will be taken."
Ikram Sehgal agrees that the prospect of elections going ahead looks slim. "It would be foolhardy for the government to go ahead with elections at this stage when the country is tipping into anarchy," he says.
However Musharraf is likely to come under intense pressure from the US and Britain to continue with the elections as planned. Both governments had encouraged a powersharing deal between Bhutto and Musharraf, hoping the alliance would put Pakistan on the path to democracy.
Bhutto's party - the Pakistan People's Party - is also likely to want the polls to go ahead, in order to take advantage of the inevitable groundswell of public sympathy.
Whatever happens, it is clear that, for all Bhutto's faults, Pakistan's tumultuous political landscape will be all the poorer for her passing. "It will be difficult for Bhutto's party to replace her," says Durrani.
Sehgal agrees. "It is a great loss to the moderate forces in Pakistan," he adds.