MIDDLE EAST: The autocratic Arafat has made himself indispensable in political life, to the point where his departure creates an unthinkable vacuum, writes Michael Jansen
The Palestine National Authority, a group severely weakened by Israeli military action and internal wrangling, was in a state of shock last night as the health of its President, Mr Yasser Arafat, deteriorated rapidly.
The autocratic Arafat, who is head of the authority's parent body, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), is a founder of the authority. Over the course of his political life, he has made himself indispensable.
A unifying figure, he has always dictated policy and managed competing factions and personalities within the PLO and the authority.
Without his firm guidance, the authority could well collapse into chaos, given that most of its stalwarts belong to the group of unpopular exiles who returned with him to the Palestinian territories back in 1994.
The local leadership that emerged during the first Palestinian intifada, which started in 1987 and ended in 1993, has been sidelined by Mr Arafat, hence the authority today is not deeply rooted.
As head of the National Security Council, the 75-year-old leader also controls the dozen or so security agencies and their fractious and ambitious chiefs.
Last July, Mr Arafat succeeded in imposing order in Gaza after several weeks of infighting between two of these agencies. Until recently, he also firmly held the purse strings and supervised all financial outlays, including payments to the authority's 40,000 employees.
While he later relinquished this role to the Ministry of Finance, Mr Arafat still has discretionary funds at his disposal which he uses to purchase the loyalty and co-operation of leading figures and political factions in the West Bank and Gaza.
Hailed as "Mr Palestine" by his people, he also enjoys more support than any of the other personalities in his entourage.
The past and current prime ministers, Mr Mahmud Abbas and Mr Ahmad Qurei, are lieutenants to Mr Arafat.
Neither man has his own mass constituencies.
This is also the case with the West Bank and Gaza leaders of Mr Arafat's ruling Fateh movement, with the exception of Mr Marwan Barghouti, a charismatic member of the younger generation whose popularity rivals Mr Arafat's.
Although he has been spoken of as a likely successor, he is currently serving several life terms in an Israeli prison and is unlikely to be set free.
For now, Palestinians appear united and determined to respect the laws and system of governance put in place when the authority was established.
It is expected that the cabinet under Mr Qurei, the ministries, police and security agencies will continue to carry out duties in a normal fashion.
The death of Mr Arafat could, however, lead to a violent factional power struggle which could shatter Palestinian unity and disrupt the work of the government. Palestinians fear that without him, the authority, the West Bank and Gaza, already carved into enclaves by Israel, could turn into city statelets controlled by local warlords who have been challenging the authority over the past year.
Israel and its ally, the United States, could be expected to welcome Mr Arafat's departure from the political stage. They blame him for failing to clamp down on the violence of the second intifada, which erupted in 2000.
Since that time, they have argued that for as long as Mr Arafat remains at the helm of the authority, Israel has "no partner" with whom they can negotiate, therefore the peace process can not be resumed.
Mr Arafat is the only Palestinian leader with the charisma and the solid political standing to deliver if a negotiated settlement is to be achieved.
He is also looked upon as the only figure who can exert some control over the Islamist opposition, represented by the Hamas and Jihad movements, and the rebellious cadres of Fateh's military wing.
According to Dr Mustafa Barghouti, a member of the Palestinian legislature, the only way to preserve the authority now and prevent a slide into anarchy, would be to hold fresh elections for the national council, if Israel permits.
He argues that given that the first and last time Palestinians went to the polls was in January 1996, the mandate of the current council has long expired.
Elections could create a balance of power between the older and younger generations on one hand, and between the former exiles and Palestinians who remained in the West Bank and Gaza throughout the occupation on the other. And health permitting, Mr Arafat could stand again, says Dr Barghouti.
Indeed, the "Old Man," as he is affectionately known, has already made it clear he would do so.