Former Minister for Justice Alan Shatter has warned that a Yes victory in the referendum on same sex marriage is not assured.

He also expressed serious concern at the delay in publishing legislation providing for adoption by same sex couples.

In a speech to his Fine Gael constituency organisation in Goatstown, Co Dublin, Mr Shatter said he had the privilege of bringing to Government the proposal that the referendum on same sex marriage should be held.

“The May referendum is the culmination of that agreement and, despite what is represented currently in opinion polls as being overwhelming support for change, we should not take it for granted that there will be a majority Yes vote.

“In 1986, there was similar overwhelming support for constitutional change to permit divorce at this distance from the date of the referendum but, by the time the votes were cast and counted, the support had evaporated.

“When it comes to effecting constitutional change in relation to issues of social policy, no outcome should ever be taken for granted,” said Mr Shatter.

On the issue of adoption, he said when legislation was going through the Dáil to provide for civil partnerships in 2009/10 the then government excluded any specific provisions prescribing the law applicable to the relationship between gay couples and their children, whether children were born as a consequence of assisted reproduction or with the assistance of a surrogate.

Mr Shatter said that specific provisions to address the position of such children and the rights of parents subsequent to a civil partnership breaking down were also avoided.

“The same issues and difficulties will arise with regard to married same sex couples should the referendum be successful, as currently apply to civil partners.

“Unfortunately, these issues are not widely understood by the general public and, at the time when Cabinet decided to hold a Marriage Equality Referendum, I emphasised the importance of our enacting the Children and Family Relationships Bill addressing these important parental issues in advance of the referendum being held,” said Mr Shatter.

Mr Shatter said all of these issues needed to be addressed in legislation whether or not the ceremony that same sex couples celebrate is to be recognised as a marriage.

“My concern at that time and today remains that, if this new legislative framework is not enacted and in place well in advance of the referendum to be held, it will facilitate those opposed to constitutional change generating controversy and muddying the waters and misleading people into voting No.

“The draft Children and Family Relationships Bill was published by me exactly one year ago for consultative purposes and I am greatly concerned that it has not yet been published as a final Bill for Second Stage debate in Dáil Éireann.”

Mr Shatter said he was further concerned that the provisions relating to surrogacy had been removed and a separate Bill dealing with both assisted reproduction and surrogacy was to be published by the Department of Health.

“I believe it is of vital importance that the required legislation be enacted in advance of the referendum being held,” said Mr Shatter.

He also called for a new divorce referendum to revisit the issue of the current four year time frame between separation and divorce with a view to its elimination or substantial reduction.