The first Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll to be conducted since the coalition government took office three months ago contains a reality check, some encouragement, and a warning for the tripartite administration on the eve of its first budget.
The most obvious finding of the poll is that this Government will not inherit the stratospheric approval ratings that its predecessor enjoyed at the end of its term. Reality check.
The Greens, as many predicted before the party entered Government, get hammered, both in leader Eamon Ryan's personal ratings and in the party's headline support
Back in June, more than four months after the general election and as the first phase of the pandemic abated, the Fine Gael-led minority government enjoyed an approval rating of 72 per cent, while its leader, Leo Varadkar, had an even better number – 75 per cent. The irony of the fact that voters had only a few months earlier voted overwhelmingly to sack the government did not prevent Varadkar and the Fine Gael ministers from enjoying it. Fine, as long as they didn't expect it to last.
Greens hammered
The headline finding today shows that the approval rating of the new Government is nothing like what its predecessor enjoyed at the end of its life. Party leaders have all seen a decline in their personal ratings. The Greens, as many predicted before the party entered Government, get hammered, both in leader Eamon Ryan’s personal ratings and in the party’s headline support which collapses from 12 per cent in June to just 4 per cent today. Some of Ryan’s colleagues might resist the temptation to say “I told you so.” Not all of them will.
But truth be told – the Green Party aside – this is not a bad poll for a Government that has suffered so many mishaps, some self-inflicted, many not. Encouragement.
The Government's satisfaction rating is down hugely from June's number to be sure, but it is still, at 48 per cent, very high by the standards of the series – the highest since the honeymoon period of the 2011 Fine Gael-Labour coalition. Varadkar's rating falls since June, but it's still the second highest he has ever received. Even Micheál Martin's approval rating, though also down, is pretty decent. June's figure excepted, it's the highest he has achieved since 2018.
Martin may console himself with the thought: it could have been worse
Fianna Fáil’s vote share, at 17 per cent, recovers somewhat from the figure in June, while Fine Gael’s declines slightly. The total vote share of the three Government parties is greater than it was on election day, but this is due to the buoyant numbers again demonstrated by Fine Gael.
The poll won't assuage the worries in Fianna Fáil about its long-term future. It is weakest in Dublin (at 12 per cent) and strongest among the over 65s (27 per cent). But with some recent polls showing the party's support as low as 10 per cent, Martin may console himself with the thought: it could have been worse.
Get on with things
There is a sizeable chunk of voters who, it seems, want the Government to get on with things, and are prepared to give the coalition parties a chance to get on with it. Back in January, Ipsos MRBI asked if people believed the then Government had “made progress” and should “get on with the job”. Just 20 per cent agreed; today that number has doubled to 40 per cent. They were also asked if there had not been enough progress, and if a change was required – 38 per cent agreed. Now it’s 31 per cent. And asked if they favoured a “radical change of direction”, 37 per cent agreed. Now it’s 23 per cent.
Also in January, 55 per cent of people believed the country was going in the wrong direction, with just 35 per cent saying the country was “generally going in the right direction.” Now there’s a small majority (45-41 per cent) who think we’re going in the right direction.
Sinn Féin surge in this year's general election was no flash in the pan
Taken together, these numbers seem to indicate that the mood for change in the country, which was the defining dynamic of the general election campaign in February, has eased somewhat.
What is happening, it seems, is that Sinn Féin is consolidating and strengthening its position as the alternative to the established parties, the real opposition, the vehicle for change. Although Mary Lou McDonald’s personal ratings slip somewhat today, Sinn Féin support grows by four points to 29 per cent. Today’s numbers bear out what June’s numbers suggested – that though it came suddenly and without warning, the Sinn Féin surge in this year’s general election was no flash in the pan. The growth of the party and its establishment as the mainstay of the Opposition is a structural change in Irish politics that will be with us for some time to come.
Dominant
That picture is only strengthened by looking at the smaller parties on the left. Though Labour support grows by a couple of points today to 4 per cent, the Social Democrats are only at 2 per cent and Solidarity-People Before Profit just one per cent. The Independents on 8 per cent are scattered across the political spectrum. Sinn Féin is the dominant – and perhaps unassailable – force on the left of Irish politics.
For the Green Party, there is the warning that the traditional fate of small parties in coalition may await them. This is not automatic: small parties such as the Progressive Democrats have prospered in Government because they were associated with its successes, which mattered a lot to people who were open to voting for them. That is the effect that Eamon Ryan needs to produce for the Greens, through effective climate action policies. It hasn't happened yet.
One final note on the methodology employed in today’s poll. Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI political polls have always been sampled using a face-to-face process, where interviews are conducted at people’s homes. However, for our previous poll in June, interviews were conducted over the telephone due to Covid-19 restrictions. Today sees a return to the face-to-face method. That should be borne in mind for the purposes of comparison between the two polls.
