Following the recent byelections, there are 28 members of the Dáil representing 22 different constituencies who come under the general heading of Independents or Others.

This is by far the highest number of TDs outside the formal party structure in the history of the State, with more than half of the 43 constituencies now represented by a member of the group.

Some of them belong to small socialist parties or factions, some are ex-members of Fine Gael or Labour and others are more traditional Independents, but they constitute a bigger bloc than Sinn Féin or Fianna Fáil and are close in size to Labour.

If the trend in recent opinion polls and byelections is maintained until the general election in 12 months or so , there will be at least 40 Independents/Others in the next Dáil and they could even be a bigger grouping than any of the political parties.

That would make the formation of the next government extremely difficult, if not impossible, and plunge the country into a phase of political instability, with unknown consequences.

It is some irony that just as the country is on its way out of an economic and financial crisis that threatened the foundations of the State, a political earthquake is now a real possibility.

Dublin South TD Shane Ross has written to the 193 Independent councillors in an effort to mobilise a group of them into a coherent political force, while Denis Naughten, the former Fine Gael TD for Roscommon-South Leitrim, has spoken of Independents coming together to be part of the next government.

Independents in government

That did happen in 1948 when James Dillon entered the first inter-party government as minister for agriculture, representing a group of six Independents. The chances of Ross or Naughten repeating that feat nearly 70 years later cannot be ruled out, but only a small minority of the current crop of Independents/Others are likely to be interested in government and fewer again capable of the discipline required to keep a government in office.

The crop of 28 in the Dáil come from a variety of political backgrounds and ideologies, but their electoral appeal is based on a rejection of the main parties.

“The label Independent is what gets us elected. Apart from being against the government, you don’t explain in detail what you stand for because if you do you start losing votes,” said one Independent TD. Broadly speaking, though, 15 of the Dáil crop can be classified as on the left and they are particularly strong in Dublin, as shown in the recent local elections.

The biggest left-wing grouping comprises the three TDs in the Socialist Party (Joe Higgins, Ruth Coppinger and Paul Murphy). However, the three have made their electoral journey to the Dáil in various guises. The most recent addition , Murphy, was elected in the Dublin South West byelection under the label “Anti-Austerity Alliance”.

Another TD, Clare Daly, was a member of the Socialist Party but left since her election, although that has not stopped her being one of the most effective anti- Government voices in the Dáil.

The Socialist Party TDs and Daly are followers of Leon Trotsky. So are Richard Boyd Barrett and Joan Collins, who were elected under the banner of “People Before Profit” but, as with the Socialists, there was a falling out and Collins is no longer politically associated with Barrett.

In the 2011 general election the Socialist Party and People Before Profit came together to campaign as the United Left Alliance, along with South Tipperary TD Séamus Healy but they quickly splintered.

Two other left-wing TDs, Catherine Murphy and John Halligan, began their careers in the Workers’ Party, which backed the Marxist orthodoxy of Lenin rather than the Trotskyite deviation. They took different paths before making it to the Dáil as left-wing Independents.

Other left-wingers are Thomas Pringle, a former Sinn Féin member, Maureen O’Sullivan, who succeeded to Tony Gregory’s old seat, and Finian McGrath who has always been a left-leaning Independent. Developer Mick Wallace, whose businesses collapsed during the downturn, is usually associated with the left-wing Independents in Dáil debates.

Two other left-wing TDs, Róisín Shortall and Tommy Broughan, were elected as Labour TDs in 2011 and Shortall served as a junior minister for health until she resigned in protest at Government policy. Of the other 13 Independents, five were elected as Fine Gael TDs in 2011. Denis Naughten left over the closure of Roscommon hospital and the other four, Lucinda Creighton, Peter Mathews, Billy Timmins and Terence Flanagan left over the abortion legislation.

Former Fine Gaelers

Two other Independents were also members of Fine Gael for a period. Michael Lowry resigned in 1996 when he was a minister, while Shane Ross was elected as a party councillor in Wicklow in 1991 and was an unsuccessful Dáil candidate for Fine Gael in 1992. He had been an Independent member of the Seanad before that and reverted to it after his foray into party politics.

Of the remaining six, two were elected to the Dáil as party politicians, Mattie McGrath for Fianna Fáil and Noel Grealish for the Progressive Democrats. The two South Kerry Independents, Michael Healy Rae and Tom Fleming, had Fianna Fáil links before going Independent.

Stephen Donnelly from Wicklow and Michael Fitzmaurice from Roscommon were elected as Independents.

One of the biggest political questions facing the country now is whether the rise of the Independents and smaller parties has become unstoppable.

Former Labour minister Barry Desmond once remarked: “Independents are like perfume: lovely to smell but dangerous to swallow.” The electorate has never been closer to taking the risk and swallowing a large dose of perfume.