In light of the limited, but potentially damaging opposition to the Northern Ireland Agreement, in both jurisdictions, all negotiators will be acutely aware of what might materialise over the next five to six weeks leading up to the two referendums. However, the news from these surveys, conducted in the immediate aftermath of the successful conclusion on Good Friday - is exceptionally comforting from the point of view of those who support the agreement.
As of now, each referendum would be carried substantially, while marginal majorities in each jurisdiction, also see the agreement as having a reasonable to strong chance of bringing lasting peace.
Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland, the focus of many political eyes, the agreement is very heavily supported with 73 per cent intending to vote in favour and 14 per cent against, a five-to-one favourable ratio (Table B). Positive reaction is particularly strong among the SDLP, Alliance, Sinn Fein and UUP party supporters, and also among Catholics and those living in the western region. In fact, the sole category which has a net negative impact is the DUP, where 70 per cent intend to vote against. In general election terms, this represents an 11 per cent anti vote.
In terms of the likelihood of the agreement bringing a lasting peace, 52 per cent hold the opinion that it will do so (Table A), with one-in-seven negatively disposed and one-in-three holding back on the issue. Those most optimistic are again supporters of the four parties mentioned above, while those remaining to be convinced are primarily young electors aged under 34.
Three criteria - deserving of most credit, being helpful and being obstructive - were applied in assessing the perceived impact of 12 people who were associated with the peace process (Table C). Tony Blair emerges in first position, primarily because he is seen to have been helpful by most observers, to have tied with John Hume as deserving of most credit, and to have been obstructive to the least extent. John Hume, using the same criteria, is second followed by David Trimble and George Mitchell.
In the, as yet, hypothetical situation of an election to the new Assembly following the passing of the referendum, the current indications are that both the UUP and SDLP would in broad terms retain their respective general election figures, with at this stage some diminution in support for the DUP and Sinn Fein. However, this election is some distance down the road and current figures may not yet be indicative of the final outcome.
Republic of Ireland
In light of the agreement, a sizeable majority - 61 per cent - would currently vote to amend Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution (Table B) with almost a fifth undecided. This follows an MRBI survey in November 1993, which showed for the first time a majority in favour of changing the constitutional claim to an aspiration.
However, the fairly sizeable volume who are currently undecided include many who are working-class and female, and could indicate that further communication from the Government may be necessary. Significantly however, almost half of those who are undecided and also half of those who intend voting No, are current Fianna Fail supporters. It would appear that Government communication is quite imperative.
Almost three in every five consider that the agreement has a reasonable to strong chance of bringing lasting peace, with again one-in-four - many of whom are again Fianna Fail supporters - undecided on the issue.
A considerable majority - seven in every 10 - consider that the constitutional claim to Northern Ireland is justified, but most feel that it could be given up for peace in the North (Table D). A minority see it as a major obstacle to peace in the North.
Britain
In Britain, some 53 per cent feel that the agreement has a good or better chance of bringing lasting peace, this compares with 57 per cent and 52 per cent in the Republic and Northern Ireland respectively. (The rating scales used were not identical, but are broadly comparable). (Table A)
Eighty-one per cent of British electors, when asked the hypothetical question as to how they would vote if a referendum was to be held on the Northern Ireland peace process, answered Yes; 4 per cent answered No, and 15 per cent were undecided (Table B). This is consistent with an Irish Times/MRBI survey in February 1996 when the preferred solution among British electors was for Northern Ireland to become independent. The implications are clear.
In terms of who should get most credit among British electors, Mo Mowlam and Tony Blair on 28 per cent and 27 per cent are way ahead of all others, with John Major on double the support for John Hume; four times that of Gerry Adams and 10 times that of Bertie Ahern. More post-agreement Irish spin-doctoring would appear to be a requirement.