Poll shows 79% of NI voters back agreement parties

Parties backing the Belfast Agreement have the support of 79 per cent of the electorate in Northern Ireland, according to the…

Parties backing the Belfast Agreement have the support of 79 per cent of the electorate in Northern Ireland, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll.

However, support for the Ulster Unionist Party is down to 27 per cent, a drop of six percentage points compared with the previous poll two weeks ago.

The latest poll, carried out on Monday and Tuesday this week, shows the UUP falling back from 33 to 27 per cent, excluding the undecided. The Democratic Unionist Party, which opposed the agreement, rises from 13 to 16 per cent. Peace is the issue of most concern to the electorate.

Support for Mr David Trimble's UUP remains ahead of any other party, one percentage point higher than the SDLP at 26 per cent. Support for the main nationalist party has dropped by one point since the last poll, while Sinn Fein has gone up two percentage points to 10 per cent support.

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Polls in Northern Ireland tend to underestimate Sinn Fein strength and the party has consistently achieved much higher levels at the ballot-box.

The combined strength of the Yes parties has dropped three points from the level of 82 per cent they received in the last poll, conducted shortly after the referendum on the Belfast Agreement.

The Alliance Party drops one point to 9 per cent. However, it remains ahead of all others as the party of second choice and appears set to do well from transfers in next Thursday's election which will be conducted under proportional representation.

Three per cent of respondents say they intend giving their first preferences to the anti-agreement UK Unionists, the same as before. The Progressive Unionists who back it, also score 3 per cent, up from 1 per cent in the last poll. In Belfast where it has some high-profile candidates, the PUP scores 9 per cent.

A total of 41 per cent of the electorate say they intend voting for one party only but among the remainder, Alliance is the second choice for 12 per cent. Although this represents a drop of three points on the previous poll, it is still higher than any other party.

Second preference intentions are as follows (previous poll in brackets): Alliance 12 (15); UUP 9 (13); SDLP 9 (8); Sinn Fein 5 (5); UK Unionist Party 3 (3); Progressive Unionist Party 3 (2); Women's Coalition 3 (2); Labour 1 (-); Other 8 (2).

The poll was directed for The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd and conducted by the Harris Research Centre. A thousand people throughout the 18 constituencies of Northern Ireland were interviewed by telephone on Monday and Tuesday.

The poll shows a shift in opinion on the issues voters consider most important. In the last poll peace was level with arms decommissioning at 28 per cent.

However, peace is now the highest priority for 45 per cent, with decommissioning down to 19 per cent.

Concern about the release of paramilitary prisoners, which has received considerable attention from the media and politicians, is third-highest among the issues of importance at 14 per cent, the same figure as before.

Overall, the poll indicates parties supporting the agreement should win a very large share of the seats in the 108-member Assembly.

However the anti-agreement parties, when combined with UUP dissidents, could gain 30 seats, giving them the potential under Assembly rules to make the agreement unworkable.

It is hoped to hold the first meeting of the Assembly in the week beginning June 29th, the North's Political Minister, Mr Paul Murphy, said yesterday.