Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is likely to win an election forced upon mid-term, according to an opinion poll that found a majority of registered voters believe he is doing a good job.
The survey, commissioned by a unit of Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA, found 49 per cent of registered voters in favour of the left-wing former army officer with 41 per cent against.
The poll, conducted by US pollster Evans/McDonough (EMC) and local company Varianzas Opinion, is the latest in a series of conflicting surveys before the Aug 15th vote.
Most polls have projected Mr Chavez would lose the election, but more recent surveys have revealed a tight race as the populist leader spends heavily on health and education programs that have bolstered his support among the poor.
Among registered voters who told the EMC pollsters they were definitely going to vote, Mr Chavez's support rose to 51 per cent while his opponents got 43 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 2.2 per cent.
To win the election, the opposition must receive more votes than Mr Chavez and equal or beat the 3.8 million votes the president received in his 2000 re-election. More than 13.9 million people are registered to vote.
A June poll by Washington-based Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research said 49 per cent of registered Venezuelan voters supported their president while 44 per cent who would vote for him to leave office.
That poll, commissioned by a major opposition-aligned TV channel, put "core voters" tied at 48 per cent.
Mr Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and survived a coup in 2002, has vowed to defeat the challenge forced by those he dismisses as rich elites opposed to his social reforms.
His critics fought a year-long campaign for the vote accusing Mr Chavez of failing to address poverty and unemployment and increasing state control over institutions such as the electoral council in an attempt to stay in power.
He has enjoyed a windfall from high oil prices and has pumped millions of dollars into social programs. But opposition leaders, who have struggled to preserve their unity, are confident they can muster the votes they need to oust him.