ANALYSIS:An overwhelming Yes is expected but a majority are sceptical on an EU deal to ease bank debt
THE REFERENDUM on children’s rights will be carried with a massive Yes majority, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
The survey shows strong support and very little opposition to the 31st amendment to the Constitution, which will be put to the people on November 10th.
However, there is a significant number of undecided voters and a wide degree of ignorance about the measure. Just 10 per cent of people say they have a good understanding of what the issues are about.
Asked how they intend to vote in the referendum, 58 per cent of people said Yes, 4 per cent said No, 33 per cent said they didn’t know and 4 per cent either will not vote or refused to give an opinion.
Among people who say they are likely to vote in the referendum, support for a Yes vote is significantly higher, with 72 per cent saying Yes, 4 per cent No and 24 per cent don’t know.
The survey was undertaken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all constituencies.
Strongest support for the amendment came from Labour voters, with 77 per cent of them in favour, just 2 per cent against and 21 per cent don’t know.
Fine Gael voters were next strongest in their support with 68 per cent in favour, 1 per cent against and 31 per cent don’t know.
The weakest support for the amendment was among Sinn Féin supporters with 59 per cent Yes, 5 per cent No and 36 per cent don’t know.
In class terms the strongest support for a Yes vote came from the best off AB category and the weakest from the poorest DE group.
The youngest 18 to 24 age group were significantly less enthusiastic in their support for the amendment than older people, with almost half of them in the don’t know category.
The poll shows that only a small proportion of the electorate knows what the children’s referendum is about. Asked if they understood the issues involved in the referendum just 10 per cent said they did; 28 per cent said they understood some of the issues but not all; 37 per cent only had a vague understanding of the issues; 24 per cent did not know what the referendum was about; while 1 per cent had no opinion.
Even among likely referendum voters just 13 per cent said they had a good understanding of the issues and 33 per cent had some understanding of them.
Fine Gael voters were marginally more inclined to say they understood the issues, while Sinn Féin voters were the least inclined to take that view.
The level of ignorance among the youngest 18 to 24 age group was far higher than any other age category, with just 4 per cent of them saying they had a good understanding of the issues.
On the issue of whether the European Union will agree to a deal that will ease the burden of bank debt on the Republic, the poll shows that a majority of Irish voters are sceptical.
Asked for their opinion on the issue just 18 per cent of respondents said they believed the link between bank and sovereign debt would be broken, while 46 per cent said it would not and 36 per cent had no opinion.
Only Fine Gael voters had any degree of confidence that an agreement to ease the debt would be arrived at, while Labour voters were the most sceptical.
Farmers and the best-off AB social group were the most confident that a positive deal for the Republic would be achieved, while the poorest DE category were the most sceptical.
Men are twice as likely as women to believe that the European Union will ultimately do a good deal for the Republic and men are far less likely to answer don’t know in response to the question.
OPINION POLL
CHILDREN'S REFERENDUM & BANK AND SOVEREIGN DEBT
Will you vote Yes or No to the 31st amendment to the Constitution on children's rights?
Yes58%
No4%
Don't know33%
Won't vote4%
How well do you feel you understand the issues in the children’s referendum?
Good understanding:10%
Understand some of the issues but not all:28%
Am only vaguely aware of the issues involved:37%
Don't know what the referendum is about at all:24%
In your opinion do you think the EU will break the link between bank debt and sovereign debt?
Yes18%
No46%
Don't know36%
