Independent candidate Ms Marian Harkin is set to win a Dβil seat in the Sligo-Leitrim constituency at the next general election, according to a TG4/MRBI opinion poll.
The poll predicted Fianna Fβil would lose one of its two seats, but both sitting Fine Gael TDs would retain theirs. Ms Harkin, who has campaigned on development issues and was only narrowly beaten by Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon in the European elections, yesterday welcomed the findings but said she now expected "an onslaught" with every party telling voters she did not need first preferences.
The poll, conducted for TG4 by the MRBI, was taken among a sample survey of 400 voters between November 26th and December 1st, and details were broadcast on TG4 last night.
According to the poll, both Fine Gael's Mr John Perry and Ms Harkin are well ahead of the field, taking 24 per cent and 21 per cent respectively of first preferences. They are followed by Fianna Fβil's Mr John Ellis on 12 per cent, Mr Gerry Reynolds of Fine Gael on 11 per cent, and two new Fianna Fβil candidates, Mr Jimmy Devins (10 per cent) and Mr ╔amon Scanlon (8 per cent). Sitting Fianna Fβil TD Mr Mattie Brennan is retiring.
The poll is disappointing for Mr Seβn MacManus of Sinn FΘin, who only marginally increased his support to 8 per cent, and for Mr Declan Bree of Labour who polled 6 per cent, down from 11 per cent at the 1997 general election.
These results exclude 18.5 per cent who said they were undecided and a further 2 per cent who said they would not vote.
There was some surprise in the constituency that two candidates would take such a large share of the vote as margins are expected to be closer.
In 1997, Mr Ellis topped the poll but was still some 2,000 votes short of a quota.
Fianna Fβil rejected the finding that its vote has fallen from 40 per cent to 31 per cent. The Fine Gael vote was also down from 37 to 34 per cent. Mr MacManus questioned his 11 per cent share of the Sligo town vote given that Sinn FΘin polled 19 per cent in the urban area at the local elections.
Mr Perry's 24 per cent is a large increase from his 13 per cent share in 1997. The MRBI found that transfers would make Mr Reynolds favourite to take the third seat. While Mr Ellis was likely to be elected with the elimination of Mr Scanlan, it also said Mr Devins could benefit from a falling Labour vote and be in contention with Mr Ellis for the fourth seat.
Fine Gael's director of organisation, Mr Phil Hogan, said the result was in line with the views of "all respected political analysts, that Fianna Fβil will lose seats at the next general election and in greater numbers than previously thought."