Poll shows Obama ahead in six of eight key states

Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in six of eight key battleground states one day before the US election, including…

Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in six of eight key battleground states one day before the US election, including the big prizes of Florida and Ohio, according to a series of Reuters/Zogby polls released today.

Mr Obama holds a 7-point edge over Mr McCain among likely US voters in a separate Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby national tracking poll, up 1 percentage point from yesterday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

The two men are capping a history-making campaign with a dash from Florida through a half-dozen other crucial states as John McCain tries for an upset over Barack Obama.

With little sleep, Mr McCain was darting through seven swing states todayy, arguing that victory was virtually at hand despite national polls showing otherwise.

"My friends, it's official: There's just one day left until we take America in a new direction," he told a raucous, heavily Hispanic rally in Miami just after midnight. 

Mr Obama, comfortably ahead in national polls, was getting a later start with a rally in Jacksonville at midday and a swing through longtime Republican bastions that might go to his Democratic Party this time.

"I feel pretty peaceful," Mr Obama said on the Russ Parr Morning Show. 

"The question is going to be who wants it more," he added. "And I hope that our supporters want it bad, because I think the country needs it." 

Mr Obama heads into tomorrow's voting in a comfortable position, with Mr McCain struggling to overtake Mr Obama's lead in every national opinion poll and to hold off his challenge in about a dozen states won by President George W Bush in 2004.

The new state polls showed Mr Obama with a 1-point lead in Missouri and 2-point lead in Florida, within the margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. But Mr Obama also holds leads in Ohio, Virginia and Nevada - all states won by Mr Bush in 2004.

READ MORE

The five states where Mr Obama is ahead have a combined 76 electoral votes. Along with states won by Democrat John Kerry in 2004, they would give Mr Obama 328 electoral votes - far more than the 270 needed to win the White House.

Mr Obama also leads by 11 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which Mr McCain has targeted as his best chance to steal a state won by Kerry in 2004.

Mr McCain leads Mr Obama by 5 points in Indiana and by 1 point in North Carolina -- both states won by Mr Bush in 2004.

"Obama's lead is very steady. He could be looking at a big day on Tuesday," said pollster John Zogby. "These are all Republican states except Pennsylvania, and that does not look like it's going to turn for him."

In Florida, the biggest prize being fought over tomorrow with 27 electoral votes, Mr Obama leads McCain by 48 per cent to 46 per cent. The two were running dead even at 47 per cent one week ago.

In Ohio, the state that decided the 2004 election with a narrow win for Mr Bush, Mr Obama has opened a 6-point edge. He also has a 6-point lead on McCain in Virginia and an 8-point advantage in fast-growing Nevada.

Mr Obama leads Mr McCain by a statistically insignificant 1 point, 47 per cent to 46 per cent, in Missouri. Mr McCain has the same 1-point edge in traditionally Republican North Carolina.

McCain has a solid 5-point lead in Indiana, which has not supported a Democrat for president since 1964. Mr Obama has worked to put Indiana in the Democratic column, and plans a visit there tomorrow to try to help turn out the vote.

In the national poll, Mr Obama leads by 15 points among independents and by 13 points among women, two crucial voting blocs. He leads by 1 point among men and among all age groups except those between the ages of 55 and 69, who favour Mr McCain by 1 point.

Mr McCain leads among whites by 13 percentage points but is only attracting about 25 per cent of Hispanics. In 2004, Mr Bush won more than 40 per cent of Hispanics.

The rolling tracking poll, taken Thursday through Saturday, surveyed 1,205 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added, while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The state surveys also were taken between Thursday and Saturday with a sample in each state of between 600 and 605 likely voters. The margin of error in all eight states was 4.1 percentage points.

Reuters & AP