Poll shows South voters still coming to terms with change

It may disappoint the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, that only 61 per cent of voters in the Republic are prepared to change Articles 2 …

It may disappoint the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, that only 61 per cent of voters in the Republic are prepared to change Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution to ratify the Northern Ireland Agreement. But it is early days in the five-week campaign to the first all-island referendums, North and South, on May 22nd.

It should be no great surprise to political observers that the vote for the agreement in Northern Ireland, 73 per cent, is higher at this point.

The poll findings indicate that in the North the agreement can be seen as a "life or death" issue while voters in this State are still coming to terms with the trade-off proposed for removing the territorial claim to the North from the Constitution.

The omens in today's Irish Times/Guardian poll are good, on all fronts, for a positive outcome to the referendum given that the campaigns have barely begun.

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Within days of the document being signed, some 61 per cent of electors favour amending Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution to vote for the agreement. One-fifth of voters, or 20 per cent, oppose such change. Almost as many voters again, 19 per cent, have yet to decide.

It is interesting that among age groups, the difference in support for the agreement ranges only from 60 per cent of the 50 to 64year-olds to 65 per cent of the 18 to 24-year-olds. The No vote comprises 21 per cent of Fianna Fail voters, 21 per cent of Fine Gael voters, 18 per cent of Labour voters, 15 per cent of Progressive Democrat voters and 29 per cent of Others. The don't-knows are almost equally divided among the bigger parties.

On a further party breakdown, 50 per cent of Fianna Fail voters, 58 per cent of Fine Gael voters, 55 per cent of Labour voters, 81 per cent of PDs and 47 per cent of Others, see the constitutional claim to Northern Ireland as something which could be given up for peace in the North.

While the overall figure is 57 per cent, some 64 per cent of Fianna Fail voters, 58 per cent of Fine Gael voters, 55 per cent of Labour voters, 77 per cent of PD voters and 44 per cent of Others believe the agreement could deliver a lasting peace.

The poll findings, at this early stage, should be fairly good news for the Government. It is understandable that the Anglo-Irish experts in Government are exhausted and shying away from the task of selling the trade-offs for constitutional change to voters. Too much is at stake until the mood is assessed at the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein meetings on Saturday.

But the high level of undecided voters - one in five - illustrates starkly that if ever a referendum required the advocacy of our political leaders, rather than adverts from an invisible independent commission, then this is it.