The question many in the top echelons of our society have been asking for the last six months - why did we reject the Nice Treaty, turn our backs on the EU, abandon the applicant countries and lump ourselves in with the Eurosceptics of Britain and Denmark? - may get some answers next week. On Wednesday, the European Commission office in Dublin is releasing the results of a poll commissioned to find out why the Republic voted as it did last June, why so many didn't vote at all, where the public got its information and the value of the information sources.
One of the poll's findings, Quidnunc understands, is that the material produced by the Referendum Commission, which was obliged to explain the pro- and anti-Nice arguments, actually put people off voting completely.
The poll was conducted by Irish Marketing Surveys during the second half of August with a 1,250 countrywide sample. A total of 32 questions were asked and the results will be presented with an analysis and report by Prof Richard Sinnott of UCD. Interest will extend far beyond the Eurocrats. The Government, Opposition, farmers, trade unions, even the Church, all supported a Yes vote, so all will be keen to know why their followers defied them. The Diplomatic Corps will also study the results closely. The 14 other EU states did not hold referendums on Nice and our result sent shockwaves through many which felt a similiar outcome was possible if their electorate had voted too. The Forum on Europe that recently opened at Dublin Castle should also take note.
One of the main questions that should be answered by the poll is whether the No vote was anti-enlargement, as the Government ceaselessly denies to the applicant nations with whom we hope to trade, or just anti the whole political set-up in Ireland. Indeed, there was a feeling at the time that Euro gobbledegook, combined with the obtuse pro and anti arguments of the Referendum Commission and the perceived arrogance of the EU Commission in giving out to us about our economic policies, all combined to defeat the establishment.
Although a second referendum on Nice, which must be held before the end of next year if we are to remain a full member of the club, has been put on hold until after the election, Wednesday's findings will provide some answers as to how to do it better next time.