One round of elections or two? That is the question now obsessing Israel's politicians and voters. And the answer lies in the hands of a former geologist, a frustrated ex-general, and an Israeli-Arab who wants to reduce the Jewish character of Israel.
In the general elections on Monday, Israel will elect its 120 members of the Knesset, and vote separately for its prime minister. But if no prime ministerial candidate clears 50 per cent, the two leading contenders, the incumbent Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and his more moderate opposition challenger, Mr Ehud Barak, will be forced into a run-off, a second round, two weeks later.
Opinion polls in Israel's two main newspapers yesterday showed Mr Barak further ahead of Mr Netanyahu than ever in a one-one contest: 51 to 41 per cent, according to one poll, and a staggering 54 to 37 per cent, according to the other.
Because of that lead, and all too well aware that even so vast an advantage could conceivably be wiped out in the space of a fortnight, Mr Barak and his Labour Party allies are hoping desperately that the three other candidates drop out of the race before Monday.
The former geologist, Mr Beni Begin, son of the late Likud prime minister Menachem Begin, is polling only 2 to 3 per cent. But yesterday he was insistent that he saw "no reason" to pull out.
Mr Begin stands on the far right of the political spectrum, and while many Israelis are angered by Mr Netanyahu's slow progress in peace moves with the Palestinians, Mr Begin believes the Prime Minister has moved too fast. He is staying on the ballot, Mr Begin says, to represent those Israelis who want to relinquish no more land to the Palestinian President, Mr Yasser Arafat.
The frustrated ex-general, Mr Yitzhak Mordechai, used to be Mr Netanyahu's minister of defence, but was sacked four months ago as he began setting up a new Centre Party. Polls yesterday showed him winning no more than 6 per cent of the vote. When he declared his candidacy, Mr Mordechai cited defeating Mr Netanyahu as his primary goal. And yet today Mr Mordechai, too, is refusing to throw in the towel.
All this week, many of his Centre Party colleagues have begged him to withdraw. But even though yesterday's polls show him winning no more than 6 per cent of the vote, their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. "If you want me to withdraw my candidacy," Mr Mordechai told his colleagues on Thursday, "then you should know that I'll just go home" - a move that would leave the Centre Party without a leader, and reduce its chances of winning seats in the Knesset.
The final candidate, the Israeli-Arab Knesset member, Mr Azmi Bishara, is also down at 2 to 3 per cent but has also declined to back out, for now.
Mr Bishara has been hinting that he might withdraw tonight, provided Mr Barak promises in return to treat Israel's Arab citizens more equally if elected prime minister, by providing equal municipal funding, for example, for Israel's Arab cities and villages. As of yesterday, Mr Barak was making no promises, and Mr Bishara was digging in his heels.
"He thinks the Arabs are his reserve soldiers," sneered Mr Bishara of Mr Barak. "`But this is politics, not the army."
Mr Netanyahu who claims that all the polls are wrong, that most Israeli journalists are working for Mr Barak, and that his disillusioned former supporters can be won over if he can gain the twoweek breathing space for a second round, is as desperate that the three no-hopers stay in as is Mr Barak that they drop out.
If they do stay in, the polls suggest, Mr Barak is likely get between 44 and 48 per cent of the vote on Monday. Tis would leave him hugely outscoring Mr Netanyahu, who would get 35 to 38 per cent, but failing to clear the critical 50 per cent hurdle, and thus being forced to fight Mr Netanyahu in a second round.