RUSSIA:President Vladimir Putin's chosen successor, Dmitry Medvedev, will win 71 per cent of the vote in March's Russian presidential election, state-owned pollster VTsIOM predicted yesterday.
Mr Medvedev, who enjoys full Kremlin backing and blanket coverage in state-owned media, has been consistently way ahead of his opponents in all polls published to date.
The pollsters also analysed the past likely behaviour of voters to suggest Mr Medvedev's final support could rise to 74 per cent when other factors, such as likely turnout for candidates in past elections, are taken into account.
VTsIOM predicted Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov would come in second place with 12.8 per cent and nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky in third with 11.5 per cent.
The survey was conducted on January 26th and 27th among 1,600 committed Russian voters in 46 regions. Andrei Bogdanov of the tiny Democratic Party received 0.9 per cent of the predicted votes.
Among confirmed voters, Mr Medvedev's 71.2 per cent support towers over the 6.1 per cent for Mr Zhirinovsky and Mr Zyuganov's 5.6 per cent. VTsIOM said the margin of error was 3.4 per cent and anticipates a 70.7 per cent turnout on March 2nd.
However, VTsIOM chief Valery Fedorov cautioned a further 15.9 per cent of likely voters did not reveal who they would support. He said it was impossible to predict how Mr Medvedev's decision not to participate in television debates would affect his vote, though a separate portrait of him found he was positively perceived by voters.
"In the view of the overwhelming majority of voters, Medvedev looks very confident, very positive, and very respectable virtually on all personal characteristics," Mr Fedorov said.
While 74 per cent of those polled described Mr Medvedev as well-mannered and educated, only 3 per cent consider him crude or cruel, Mr Fedorov said.
Meanwhile, the European Union is treading carefully over its doubts about the fairness of Russia's March 2nd election to avoid antagonising its large neighbour at a delicate time in their ties, analysts and diplomats say.
Usually swift to chide democratic failings around the world, the 27-member bloc does not want to exacerbate relations with its biggest energy supplier, and believes Moscow would in any case shrug off any criticism about its staging of the poll.
"There is a sense that whatever we say it will not make any difference," said Katinka Barysch of the London-based Centre for European Reform think tank.
"We need to have a functioning relationship with the leadership, old or new... We don't want to antagonise them too much."
The election arm of the Vienna-based Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe said it would refuse to monitor the vote, in which Mr Putin's chosen successor, Mr Medvedev, is streets ahead of rivals, unless Moscow eased restrictions on its observers.