An independent study on seaports commissioned by the Department of the Marine pointed to a shortage in capacity of almost nine million tonnes by the end of 2007, mainly at the larger ports of Dublin, Cork and Rosslare.
In assessing the problem, the Department of the Marine and Natural Resources commissioned another report from economic consultants Baxter and Eadie which analysed the cargo trends at 20 seaports. Based on this report and its own information, the Government concluded that investment of about £133 million was needed over the next seven years to ensure that the ports functioned as required.
In addition, the Government concluded there were special problems in the west. Improving road and rail links meant access and egress could be achieved more speedily by transporting the goods by road or rail through the east coast ports and onwards to the Continent through the UK, negating the need to use western ports.
Despite the special problems, the Government also concluded that there should be sufficient support for the small ports to handle trade in their own hinterland and so survive economically.
Assuming growth of 5.5 per cent a year between now and 2003, with a fall off after that, the Baxter and Eadie report projected the following developments at the Republic's 20 ports:
In Arklow, where the 1996 tonnage was 213,000, it would increase to 406,000 tonnes by 2007, a rise of 6 per cent a year.
In Cork, the tonnage was 6,861,000 in 1996 and was predicted to rise to 11,259,000 by 2007, an increase of 4.6 per cent a year.
In Drogheda the increases were from 742,000 tonnes to 871,000, an increase of 1.5 per cent a year.
In Dublin the figures are predicted to rise from 11,174,000 tonnes to 22,243,000, a yearly increase of 6.5 per cent.
In Dundalk, the tonnage was 220,000 in 1996, falling to 211,000 by 2007, a decrease of 0.4 per cent a year.
In Dun Laoghaire, the 1996 figure was not available but the projected figure for 2007 was 551,000 tonnes.
In Foynes, the 1996 figure was 1,148,000 tonnes and it was estimated that by 2007 this would rise to 2,226,000, an increase of 6.2 per cent a year.
In Galway, the tonnage was 526,000 in 1996, rising to 678,000 in 2007, a projected yearly increase of 2.3 per cent.
In Greenore, the 1996 figure was 312,000 tonnes rising to 372,000, an increase of 1.6 per cent a year.
In New Ross the figure for 1996 was 1,095,000 rising to 1,339,000, a yearly rise of 1.8 per cent.
In Rosslare, the figure for 1996 was 1,104,000 tonnes, rising to 2,653,000, an increase of 8.3 per cent a year.
In Shannon Estuary ports, the 1996 figure was 7,999,000, which is expected to rise to 13,436,000, a yearly increase of 4.8 per cent.
In Sligo, the 1996 figure was 34,000 tonnes, expected to fall to 18,000, a yearly reduction of 5.6 per cent.
In Waterford, the figure for 1996 was 1,618,000, rising to 2,646,000, an increase of 4.6 per cent a year.
In Wicklow the 1996 figure was 163,000 tonnes, which is projected to rise to 444,000, a yearly increase of 9.5 per cent.
Other ports, which include Arklow Jetty, Bantry, Fenit, Kinsale and Youghal, give a combined figure of 709,000 tonnes for 1996, which is projected to rise to 1,354,000 by 2007.
In considering the estimates for the seaports the Government-commissioned DKM Review of Transport Infrastructure Investment Needs completed in February of this year, found a number of difficulties.
These were:
Arklow: Fertiliser, the main product handled, can account for between 70 and 80 per cent of throughput. The future importation of phosphate is likely to be zero as it is being eliminated from the manufacturing process. A sharp downturn in fertiliser prices and ICI's plans to divest itself of its share of the Arklow fertiliser plant IFI do not augur well for the port. CORK: Traffic projections are based in part on a planned development of Passage West. This, however, is not now going ahead, and unless the traffic is diverted to Ringaskiddy or Tivoli, the figures for Cork could be mistaken.
Dublin: The projections may be conservative as structural changes give a lower throughput cost, according to DKM. Lower costs would mean that Dublin achieves a higher percentage of national throughput and in an period of economic growth would likely grow faster than other ports.
Drogheda: Development under way at Tom Roes point and associated dredging could lead to much higher growth than 1.5 per cent, according to DKM.
New Ross and Waterford: Management problems at Waterford Port in the past diminish its reputation and, according to consultants, "diminish that port's position as a major load-on, load-off port".
Wicklow: Timber and coal are the main products handled. Given recent trends in coal traffic and environmental concerns about the use of coal, the DKM report concludes, "the prospect for Wicklow's coal trade do not appear favourable".
Northern Ireland: The regional strategic framework for Northern Ireland gives broad outline of the development of its ports. The proposals are to create a North/South transport corridor along the Dublin to Belfast axis, with good onward links to Larne, Warrenpoint and Rosslare. The long term concept envisages development at Derry, Ballycastle, Larne, Belfast and Warrenpoint.
